Uncreditworthy
Investors in Life,
It is not difficult to see that the credit-rating of the Post-Bretton-Woods-Financial-Expediency is degrading, which raises its interest rates, which reduce its ability to service debt, and the central banks of the world have been quietly offloading that debt in favor of increasing gold in their reserves.
I live within the nation which is the current imperial seat, something we citizens never wanted and were never sold, but it was swapped-in for promises of freedom and prosperity, now long expired. The imperial seat used to be in London, but it can be more distributed these days with the internet and Starlink. The imperial seat supplies manpower, production, military force projection and a certain facade, but it can be replaced, and it can change its style, as long as the financial extraction machine remains operational in the style described by Michael Hudson’s book Super Imperialism (1972) https://michael-hudson.com/books/super-imperialism-the-economic-strategy-of-american-empire/
As long as the $US is necessary to buy oil and other global necessities, it remains the reserve-currency, and countries need $US to do business, so they trade their real products and services for $US, which the US creates as debt instruments for those real goods and services, payable in more of those debt instruments with a bit of interest, as long as the debt instruments are agreed to have market value for real things. It is all about faith, agreement, and financial infrastructure in place to make it convenient. If that breaks, something new (or old) will need to replace it. Faith will be gone, so gold is the rumored successor. Everybody but Venezuela has gold, after-all...
The imperial military has imposed horrific costs upon countries like Iraq and Libya that threatened the $US system by selling oil in other currencies. The military threat is being challenged by Iran now. Exclusion of Iran from the $US trading system did not succeed in destroying that country, but did weaken faith in the $US, since it could be weaponized at will against those who held it at the pleasure of the US Treasury Dept.
The $US weaponization against Russia was meant to be a death blow. It failed. It is a quagmire now with a weakened $US and gold-in-hand being the no-faith-needed alternative, as it always was before. A gold-based international trade system enforces balances of trade, to avoid a country running out of gold and being unable to get necessary supplies.
From my perspective the question is how the $US default will be managed, since the debt vastly exceeds the ability to service it without borrowing to do so already, and that condition is exacerbated as debt is compounded exponentially. Wars are usually the management strategy when debts can’t be serviced going forward. Wars bring emergency powers and compelling excuses. Debts are cancelled in various ways, and the new debts of the winners become fair risks.
This is not only true for $US debt, but for all debt based upon the promise to repay with interest, because global real economy now looks like it is entering an extended or permanent depression as oil, coal, copper and other extracted resources decline in quality and availablity, as extraction expenses rise.
Fabio Vighi, There is No America - A Short Primer on Collapse The financialisation of everything
Financialisation is the extension of the asset form into every corner of existence. What matters is not whether something fulfils a social need, but whether it can be converted into a stream of income capable of supporting a financial valuation. Wherever predictable revenues can be extracted, an asset can be created. Wherever an asset can be created, debt can be issued against it. Wherever debt exists, new instruments can be constructed, traded, and leveraged. The result is a self-expanding architecture of fictitious capital whose growth depends upon the continuous colonisation of everyday life.
Housing offers the clearest example. A home was once primarily a place to live, a social institution embedded within communities and family life. Today it functions increasingly as an investment vehicle. As we learned in 2008, mortgages are bundled into securities, sold across global markets, and used as collateral within far larger circuits of speculation. Housing itself becomes secondary to the asset it generates. The persistent tension between the social function of shelter and the financial imperative of appreciation is not an unfortunate side effect of neoliberalism. It is the organising principle of hyper-financialised, debt-based capitalism.
The same logic has transformed healthcare. What was once conceived, however imperfectly, as a public good has become a field of financial extraction. Hospitals are acquired by investment funds, pharmaceutical companies are valued by shareholder expectations, insurance systems become opaque, and the language of care gives way to the language of return on investment. As we should have learned in 2020, patients become revenue streams, and illness becomes an asset class.
Education follows the same trajectory. Universities no longer primarily reproduce knowledge or cultivate citizenship. They manufacture indebted subjects. Student loans become financial products, securitised and sold, while education itself is evaluated less by what it teaches than by the future income streams it promises to generate. Thus, the student enters society as a bearer of debt whose future labour has already been partially appropriated. The same holds at the other end of the life cycle, as pensions are bundled into financial instruments.
Even the ordinary routines of consumption are absorbed into this logic. Credit-card balances, automobile loans, consumer finance and payday lending all become raw material for securitisation. Everyday indebtedness is transformed into tradable securities circulating through financial markets, which means that those markets profit from social insecurity.
Financialisation thus assetises social relations themselves. The home, the body, education, old age, attention, data, anticipated future behaviour – all become collateral against which financial wealth, amassed at the top, can be conjured as if from a magician’s hat. Every sphere of life is justified in its real existence only insofar as it can be transformed into an abstract monetary claim upon tomorrow.
War represents the culmination of this logic. If housing, healthcare, and education are now financial assets, war is their most spectacular expression. While rearmament is sold to the masses as the political response to an unstable geopolitical landscape, it is, above all, an enormous liquidity event for global finance. The European Union’s SAFE programme (Security Action for Europe) alone envisages up to €150 billion in common borrowing to support defence procurement; and defence exchange-traded funds are among the fastest-growing investment vehicles in European markets. What this means is that military expenditure no longer generates profits mainly through weapons manufacturers or government contracts. Instead, it generates investable financial products. Destruction itself becomes an opportunity for portfolio diversification.
The merchant of death has migrated from the factory floor to the trading desk. Bombed cities, displaced populations, shattered infrastructures, and even a 1,000-day long genocide disappear behind ticker symbols, derivatives, exchange-traded funds, and quarterly earnings reports – because the balance sheet is all that matters to the dehumanised subject of finance. Violence undergoes the same abstraction that finance imposes upon every other dimension of social life. War is financialised: its anticipated revenues are capitalised in advance, its future contracts discounted into present asset prices, its destruction transformed into collateral supporting fresh rounds of speculation.
This is the endpoint towards which fictitious capital necessarily moves. Having exhausted the productive sphere, it feeds directly upon the conditions of social reproduction itself. Nothing remains external to accumulation. Home, health, education, security, information, the natural environment and organised violence become interchangeable moments within the same cannibalising logic.
The catastrophic administration of systemic insolvency
The Federal Reserve – and, more generally, the institutions responsible for managing contemporary flows of capital – are caught in a contradiction from which there is no technical escape. They confront a choice between two poisons: 1. Tight monetary policy (higher interest rates), which threatens recession, financial instability, and an increasingly unserviceable mountain of public and private debt. 2. Loose monetary policy (lower interest rates), which inflates asset prices, fuels speculation, erodes purchasing power and deepens social inequality. Neither path resolves the underlying contradiction because neither addresses its cause.
And this framing obscures as much as it reveals. When central bankers speak of inflation, they mean the rate at which prices are rising – a statistical abstraction. What ordinary people experience, however, is not merely inflation but affordability: the actual level of prices compared to their income. The two are not the same. Inflation can be modest while affordability collapses, because wages stagnate while the cost of housing, healthcare, education and energy continues its relentless ascent. The financialisation of everyday life has ensured that the essentials of survival now appreciate faster than the wages required to purchase them. The technocratic obsession with taming inflation thus misses the point entirely (and on purpose): the problem is not that prices are rising too fast, but that living has become unaffordable for the many while remaining spectacularly profitable for the few.
This is why the system has now entered its terminal historical phase. It no longer governs growth; it governs the impossibility of growth on capitalism’s own terms. Every intervention is a kick of the can – it postpones rather than addresses or resolves the crisis. Each rescue operation merely transfers the contradiction to a higher level of indebtedness and financial dependence. What is presented as prudent economic management is, in reality, the continuous administration of systemic insolvency.
Here we can see how acceleration turns into the governing principle. Debt expands faster than production; liquidity expands faster than value; technological innovation expands faster than employment. Every apparent solution intensifies the contradiction it claims to overcome. The next interest-rate cut, when it arrives, will almost certainly be celebrated as another successful “soft landing.” Markets will rally, commentators will praise the wisdom of central bankers, and another layer of fictitious capital will be piled upon an already impossible balance sheet.
War, in this expanded sense, increasingly encompasses inflation, austerity, indebtedness, permanent surveillance, technological mobilisation and the financialisation of destruction itself. The algorithmic choreography of strikes on Iran and the carefully manufactured narratives around Hormuz are not exceptions - they are the template. Military expenditure, digital infrastructure, artificial intelligence, emergency governance, and financial manipulation now form a single apparatus whose function is less to resolve crises than to administer them.
War, in this expanded sense, is the battlefield of social reproduction. Every emergency legitimises new mechanisms of extraction; every technological innovation extends the infrastructures of surveillance and control; every financial rescue creates new opportunities for accumulation. The battlefield is no longer only a distant theatre of operations. It is also the everyday terrain on which the conditions of life itself are colonised, monetised and put to work.
This also exposes the central ideological illusion of our moment. We are increasingly encouraged to believe that salvation lies in a different geopolitical configuration: a multipolar order, digital currencies, artificial intelligence, or a new balance between East and West. These transformations are real, but in their current form they do not transcend the horizon we have been tracing. A multipolar capitalism remains capitalist. Digital money remains the monetary expression of value. Artificial intelligence cannot replace the living labour upon which value ultimately depends – it destroys it even further.
Capitalism cannot survive its present terminal crisis. The only hope we have is that the system’s catastrophic irrationality, now laid bare for all to see, might yet generate an escape route – an exit strategy from the very logic that is devouring us. The final barrier to that exit is our own delusional attachment to a collapsing constellation.
“Fatal Cancer On Civilization”: Trump’s War On Marxism Enters Action Phase As Rubio, Miller And Bessent Address 65 Nations https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-live-rubio-bessent-convene-65-nations-global-crackdown-far-left-political-terrorism
US Slaps Brazil With 25% Tariffs After Rubio Says Socialist Leader “Failed To Negotiate In Good Faith” https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-slap-brazil-25-tariffs-after-rubio-says-socialist-leader-failed-negotiate-good
As you may know, I consider high-functioning sociopaths to have long been the apex predators which cull human numbers hard when crops are bad and comple societal breakdown threatens. As kings, nobles and financiers they set us out in large groups to kill each other until resources are enough for the survivors. W. Campbell (Camp) Douglas MD, Do We Have a Sociopathic Culture? Primary sociopaths can still feel emotions like shallow attachment, pleasure, excitement, boredom, jealousy, contempt, anger, rage, and sometimes fear, but these components of their ‘emotional lexicons’ are self-centered and not grounded in empathy or remorse... ..Here’s an invitation: the next time you hear the words “evil” and “cruel,” think sociopathy — the absence of the seventh sense we call conscience.
Much of what we name evil is the work of the one in twenty-five born without it — and they rise, precisely because nothing inside them ever says stop... ..If culture is the external ‘forbid’, then conscience is where that forbid is installed internally, inside most of us. Martha Stout calls it that seventh sense — not a rule we memorize but an instinctual felt obligation, rooted in the inherited capacity of most of us to love and bond, as real as pain or a smell. It turns “Can I get away with that?” back into “I shouldn’t do that.”
From her research, about one in twenty-five humans - 4% - are born without the seventh sense— not just a weak version.
The conscience apparatus is entirely absent. This is difficult for the majority of us to realize, but it explains a lot about what we call ‘evil’ in this world.
Stout gives us ways to recognize the people who lack it. The most reliable single sign, she says, is the appeal to your pity: people who consistently harm others yet, when caught, ultimately cast themselves as the victims, campaigning for your sympathy to disarm your judgment. Watch, too, for the rule of threes — one broken promise is a misunderstanding, two a mistake, three tells you the entity you are dealing with... ..Dr. Stout’s first rule: primary sociopaths look like us. But if you can recognize their patterns, she says, do not try to reform them. Separate yourself, without guilt, and walk away... ..Dr. Stanley Milgram, whose work was shaped by the Holocaust, showed that roughly two-thirds of ordinary people will override their conscience under direct authority — an unremarkable man in a white lab coat, no monster required; in a variation where the subject was one step removed — reading the words while someone else pushed the button to deliver what he believed were dangerous shocks to a fellow human — compliance climbed past ninety percent. This is secondary sociopathy. Conscience is not absent in them. It is suppressed, or bypassed by distance and appeal to authority.
“I am just following orders.”... ..If one in twenty-five of us H. sapiens is born without conscience, and that absence is an edge in the climb, then arithmetic alone says some atop our largest institutions belong to that sociopathic four percent. Which ones? No honest observer can say, without proper psychometric testing or imaging. The point is not the name on the door. It is the door - that it is real... ..We need not necessarily reach for the diagnosis to name the mechanism: a political system with no screen for conscience will, over time, be climbed most successfully by those least burdened by it... ..The absence of shame in the face of overwhelming exposure, the doubling down when caught, the unanimous cruelty administered by committee, no confessions, no apologies — these are the gravitational signatures of consciences that are primarily or secondarily switched off... ..There is hope in the arithmetic, too. Milgram found that when a person watched even one other refuse, compliance collapsed — from two-thirds to one in ten. In other words, dissidence is contagious. Every COVID-era patient and physician, like my colleague, who is willing to speak up, is a circuit breaker for the next. Awareness is the beginning of immunity: you cannot be recruited by sociopathic mechanisms that you have learned to actively look for, recognize, and properly identify.
Stout ends her book with a hope I share — that people of conscience, simply by learning to see the ones who have none, can blunt their effect and protect those we love.
Thanks Eleni, Anti-corruption probe links Kushner luxury resort to international drug trafficking network Since breaking ground on a multi-billion dollar luxury resort in Albania, the Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump-led project has done more to reveal a corrupt Zionist pay-for-play scheme than it has to shed light on one of the jewels of the Earth that had gone unnoticed until it fell into the hands of the pair of real estate scions... ..Albania’s anti-corruption investigators have turned their attention to Miami-based businessman Artur Shehu as their probe has gone underway. Investigators have zeroed in on Shehu, who sold property that he owned on Albania’s Adriatic coast to the Kushner-led company Atlantic Incubation Partners LLC, and his associates due to links they allege exist between them and an international drug trafficking ring and suspicions that the real estate empire Shehu amassed that he was able to profit from through his sale to Kushner was built through forged property records. Although Shehu’s lawyer, Kujtim Cakrani, issued a statement on behalf of his client denying all of the accusations made against him by Albania’s Special Structure Against Corruption and Organized Crime (”SPAK”), Cakrani also acknowledged that the country’s anti-corruption agency has issued a warrant for Shehu’s arrest on charges that he has laundered money for drug gangs. https://www.sott.net/article/507412-Anti-corruption-probe-links-Kushner-luxury-resort-to-international-drug-trafficking-network
Bribe of “Trump resort island” still too small? Senior Defense Officials Review Potential 101st Airborne Helicopter Assault On Cuba https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/senior-defense-officials-review-potential-101st-airborne-helicopter-assault-cuba
Alastair Crooke, MoU Stacked in Holding Pattern as U.S. Pivots to Plan ‘B’ Plan ‘A’ was to topple the Islamic Republic which was seen as nothing more than a fragile house of cards. That collapse – it was expected – would ripple through, and take down several connected Axis of Resistance fronts, according to the analysis of Mossad and interlinked Israeli power centres in the U.S. (Certain U.S. officials did, however, entertain doubts).
The prediction of a popular uprising in Iran has proved to have been a strategic mistake of such bearing that per contra, it catalysed a stronger, more defiant and assertive Republic. Even Israeli experts admit that the false premise underlying the war has generated a new balance of power in the Middle East. Until then, a top Israeli military commentator (Alon Ben David) could say, Israel was the ‘go-to’ address in the Middle East for the world’s interests; but that from now on, the ‘go-to’ state is, and will be, Iran. That comment exemplified the extent to which a Rubicon had been crossed.
So the collective pro-Zionist bloc has shifted to plan ‘B’ – a ‘deceit’ based on the MoU, which were Trump’s interpretations to be accepted by Iran (unlikely), would effectively lead to the disarming of Iran through a nuclear agreement that would strip the state naked by virtue of its ‘verification’ requirements: Intrusive, ‘go-anywhere’ surprise IAEA inspections of ‘secret underground sites’ and interrogations of scientists and research academies. All would (again) be exposed.
Taken in tandem with Plan ‘B’s wider Israeli hegemonic aspiration, the aim would be to concurrently lobotomise Hizbullah through a separate disarmament agreement effected through compliant Lebanese government factions pressing down on the movement from the north, whilst Israel pursued ‘desertification’ in the south... ..Likely, the regional pacification scheme will be viewed as a clever move by Trump to mitigate the pressure exerted on him by the neo-con’s anger at his MoU ‘concessions’ to Iran.
But is it so clever? Marco Rubio was instructed to oversee the Beirut establishment making pretty with Israel in their shared antagonism towards Hizbullah. But the resulting ‘bout de papier’ for the disarming of Hizbullah enjoys no legitimacy; it contradicts the Lebanese Constitution and would require cabinet endorsement and parliamentary approval to have any validity or meaning.
What the Israel-Lebanon agreement does do, however, is to stick a dagger in Vance’s separately agreed Qatari-chaired U.S. and Iran co-ordination structure for overseeing MoU compliance in Lebanon. Rubio’s initiative to cut Iran out from the Lebanese co-ordination framework cuts across the MoU and Vance’s mediation efforts. Rubio’s tripartite ‘paper’ will solve nothing, but will leave the ‘Lebanon issue’ to continue as an open sore.
Yet a “ceasefire in Lebanon and Israeli withdrawal” is pivotal to the functioning of the MoU. It appears that Netanyahu tee’d up Ron Dermer to get Rubio to sabotage the MoU.
So, now we have civil war inside the White House over Iran – Vance vs Rubio – whilst the MoU slides into abeyance... ..Two of the five very large crude carriers that have left the Strait are heading to Japan, while another two are making their way to China. Which means – as Larry Johnson has outlined – that even were tankers to head to the U.S. now, the U.S. would still face a serious deficit of sour crude until 23 August at the earliest, given the 42 days voyage time to the U.S. (Sour crude is crucial feedstock for complex U.S. refineries to produce diesel and jet fuel).
The post-mortem on the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran must be suspended as both Trump and Netanyahu enter a holding pattern ahead of elections. Trump might threaten to ‘obliterate’ Iran if it does not capitulate and bend the knee before him, but it is doubtful that the U.S. can long maintain its military presence in the region with munitions in short supply. Nonetheless, a further round of intense kinetic war is highly probable – and widely expected in Iran. A short ‘performative’ U.S. military strike on Iran is possible, but would achieve little – and nothing strategic.
So who is losing in this ‘war’? Israel – and Netanyahu. Netanyahu is in deep distress electorally too. The expected triumph of Israel over the Middle East has failed. https://www.unz.com/acrooke/mou-stacked-in-holding-pattern-as-u-s-pivots-to-plan-b/
Rumored: Last night at a U.S. Airbase in Jordan: 4 Iranian missiles at 1000km+ range ($ 400k-600k) vs. 8 or more U.S. Patriot PAC-3 ($ 32 million) Result 4 impacts (flawless victory?)
Official: Iran targets US 5th Fleet housing in Bahrain, air base in Jordan Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced it had carried out missile and drone strikes against U.S. military facilities in Bahrain. Iranian state broadcaster IRIB reported that the operation targeted weapons support warehouses, a satellite communications center and housing used by U.S. Fifth Fleet personnel. The IRGC later said it had also fired ballistic missiles at a U.S. air base in Jordan. “This base was used to attack us, and the American criminals were held accountable for their actions,” the IRGC said.
Jordan’s Armed Forces said they intercepted and destroyed four missiles that entered the kingdom’s airspace from Iran. https://www.turkiyetoday.com/region/iran-targets-us-5th-fleet-housing-in-bahrain-air-base-in-jordan-3223864
Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-07-16 The Iran war stopped being one-sided overnight: Iran ran multiple missile-and-drone waves against US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan, with reported US casualties, while Washington weighs seizing Kharg Island and bombing a fresh nuclear site. The other big delta is Ukraine — sacking defense minister Fedorov triggered nationwide protests and combat commanders resigning mid-war. Underneath, Hormuz went to effectively zero tanker traffic, Korea’s KOSPI leverage trade blew another -7%, and silver printed its first Death Cross since 2024 into peak capitulation. Iran hits US Gulf bases in coordinated waves; US casualties reported - IRGC and the regular Army struck Ali al-Salem and a US pier at Shuaiba in Kuwait, Isa Air Base in Bahrain, and Muwaffaq Salti in Jordan — hitting Patriots, HIMARS launchers, radars, SATCOM and MQ-9 sites, and shooting down an MQ-9 Reaper (MenchOsint).
Detailed target list including the KGL Logistics depot (largest US Army support hub in West Asia) in Mina Abdullah, plus a claimed Patriot PAC-3 miss on King Faisal base (AryJeayBackup).
Damage to an MQ-9 command-and-control centre at Ali Al Salem confirmed via satellite (AMK Mapping).
US military casualties from strikes on Iraq reported... ..Strait of Hormuz effectively shut — zero tankers Wednesday - “Not a single oil or gas tanker crossed the Strait of Hormuz” (DarioCpx)... ..Trump weighs major escalation: Kharg Island seizure, Pickaxe Mountain strike - Options under review include seizing Iranian islands near Hormuz, bombing a fortified nuclear-linked tunnel complex at Pickaxe Mountain, and expanding airstrikes to energy sites, per WSJ (JenniferJJacobs).
A Situation Room meeting reviewed an offensive “wider in scope” than current Hormuz strikes, per Axios (BarakRavid).
Vance drew a line: “We’re not going to send ground troops for regime change” (zerohedge)... ..The Fedorov purge underneath: FT frames him as the drone-tech architect who blocked procurement graft and clashed with commander-in-chief Syrsky (RALee85); incoming government led by Naftogaz CEO Koretskyi as PM (zerohedge), with interior/police chief Klimenko tipped for defense.
Iran Warns US Of ‘Infrastructure For Infrastructure’ War, Will Control Hormuz As ‘Unbreakable Red Line’ https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-warns-us-infrastructure-infrastructure-war-will-control-hormuz-unbreakable-read
US Senate Democrats block defence bill over Iran war, Israel integration
The Senate votes 50-46 to block debate on the annual defence bill over war funding and defence cooperation with Israel. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/14/senate-democrats-block-defence-bill-over-iran-war-israel-provisions
House Defeats Bid To End Israel Aid While Senate Blocks US-Israel Intel Integration https://www.zerohedge.com/political/house-defeats-bid-end-israel-aid-while-senate-blocks-us-israel-intel-integration
Jewish Voice For Peace: Israel is losing American Jews. A new nationwide poll conducted by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research has found a host of indications of the sea change in American Jewish attitudes about genocide in Gaza, and their relationship to Zionism itself.
The poll revealed NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani is more popular — by far — than Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
This may be surprising. We’ve heard ad nauseum from the Anti-Defamation League and an all-too credulous media that Jews in Mamdani’s New York live in constant fear.
The AP-NORC poll revealed 44% of American Jews actually hold a favorable opinion of Mamdani. That’s the most of any politician polled, and it’s far more favorable than for Netanyahu, viewed favorably by only 32% of American Jews and negatively by a whopping 59%.
Further, researchers found only 23% of U.S. Jews said the term “Zionist” described them extremely or very well. That’s consistent with polling from earlier this year that found most U.S. Jews — 63% — do not self-identify as Zionists.
That’s not all: Thirty-eight percent of U.S. Jews percent believe the U.S has been too supportive of Israel, and 30% believe Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. https://www.jewishvoiceforpeace.org/2026/07/15/israel-is-losing-american-jews/
Netanyahu set to attend Lindsey Graham’s funeral in DC, meet with Trump
Netanyahu is expected to fly on Saturday night and stay until Tuesday to attend the memorial service for Senator Lindsey Graham and possibly meet US President Trump. https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-902555
Moon of Alabama, War On Iran: Oil Supplies Will Again Be In Trouble – This Time For Real
The world consumes about 100 million barrels of oil per day [bpd]. Before the war on Iran some 20% of that used to pass from the Persian Gulf region through the Strait of Hormuz to the world markets... . .In total some 7 m bpd exited the Gulf region through new outlets. The releases from reserves and the lifting of sanctions contributed to additional supplies of some 3-5 m bpd. The reduction of Chinese import demand amounted to some 5 m bpd.
Due to all the above measures the global supply of about 100 m bpd only shrank to about 92-95 m bpd. Global demand, especially due to the Chinese measures, dropped to a nearly equal balance. The amount that was still missing in this rough calculation was drawn from reserves within the distribution and transport levels.
After all measures were in place demand and supply were balanced again and oil prices came down to a normal level of some $70+/bl.
When U.S. President Donald Trump decided to reignite the conflict he might have thought that the oil problem he had feared had gone away. But it hasn’t. And the conditions now will make it way more difficult to keep the markets in balance... ..Nearly all the favorable conditions which had allowed the world to ride out the supply slump during the last phase of the conflict are no longer available during the current one.
While the cash settled future markets will continue to be highly manipulated, real product prices will increase. We are likely to soon see new peaks of prices at gas stations. https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/07/war-on-iran-oil-supplies-will-again-be-in-trouble-this-time-for-real.html
IRGC Vows ‘Not A Drop Of Oil & Gas Will Be Exported’ From Region Amid Sustained Cross-Gulf Fighting https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-launches-brazen-attacks-more-tankers-hormuz-killing-crewmembers-after-araghchi
US Navy Disables Tanker Defying Blockade, As Pentagon Initiates 2nd Strike Wave Of Day After Iran Snubs Talks Pentagon announces second wave of strikes later Wednesday, the after initial 90-minute attack to start the day.
Trump threatens wider strikes unless Iran returns to talks - says attacks to ‘expand’ next week.
Wednesday saw 5th strait day of US bombardment on chiefly Iranian coastal sites.
Iran hits US-Gulf bases and warns on regional oil exports, says it is in ‘control’ of Hormuz Strait.
No evidence de-escalation: Tehran rejects talks and vows more retaliation https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-iran-exchange-heavy-strikes-5th-straight-day-trump-warns-hell-take-out-power-plants
Turkey’s Hejaz Railway Revival and the Limits of a Hormuz Alternative - A Revived Line Would Connect Turkish Industry to Arab Markets, Boost North-South Trade, and Complement Other Projects Turkey is working to modernize and extend the historic Hejaz Railway as it seeks to transform this neglected Ottoman-era line into a tool for infrastructure diplomacy. Built in the early 20th century to connect Damascus with Medina, the railway fell into decline after World War I due to conflict, neglect, and new borders. Now, Ankara wants to restore critical segments through Syria and Jordan, eventually aiming to extend the route through Saudi Arabia to Oman... ..This goal reflects Ankara’s ambition to place Turkey at the center of regional transit between Europe, the Levant, and the Persian Gulf. The first phase would reconnect Turkey to Aleppo and utilize existing rail networks in Syria and Jordan. Turkey has offered to help complete a missing segment of about 20 miles in Syria, while Jordan is prepared to support maintenance and operations. Turkey, Syria, and Jordan advanced a memorandum of understanding in Amman in 2025, followed by additional transport agreements in 2026. Saudi Arabia has also joined discussions through feasibility studies for connections to its networks...
..Israel will monitor any new Levant-Persian Gulf corridor. Iran and its allies may interpret the project as an effort to bypass their influence...
..A route marketed as a solution to a chokepoint may simply convert maritime risks into land-based political ones. The project’s true value lies not in replacing Hormuz but in broadening options. If carried out carefully, it could enhance trade, support Syria’s rebuilding, strengthen Turkey-Jordan-Gulf ties, and provide Ankara with a platform for middle-power diplomacy. https://www.meforum.org/mef-observer/turkeys-hejaz-railway-revival-and-the-limits-of-a-hormuz-alternative
Great Rewiring: US Supports Iraq-Syria Oil Pipeline To Erode Tehran’s Hormuz Leverage https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/great-rewiring-us-supports-iraq-syria-oil-pipeline-erode-tehrans-hormuz-leverage
US, Iraq finalize major energy deal during Zaidi’s first Washington visit
Trump praised the ‘handsome’ Iraqi premier during their meeting, calling him a ‘great leader’ whose influence will extend across the region https://thecradle.co/articles/us-iraq-finalize-major-energy-deal-during-zaidis-first-washington-visit
Richard Revelstoke digs deeper into the internicine rivalries between capitalist factions: Two Wings of the Same Imperial Nationalist Bird Even within the factions, there is profound disagreement over policy, strategy and resources. Within theImperial Nationalist faction are two broad strategic traditions that share the same objective — preserving American predominance — but differ profoundly over how that power should be exercised.The distinction is often presented as a debate over foreign policy. It is more accurately understood asa struggle between two different forms of defense capital whose business models require different military doctrines.
Military strategy is usually portrayed as the product of abstract strategic reasoning. Yet strategies also create demand for particular industries, procurement systems, and revenue models. Different doctrines sustain different forms of capital. Thedebate between the Primacy and America First wings is therefore not simply a disagreement over how the United States should use power; it is also a contest over which defense economy will dominate the twenty-first century... ..Ideas do not emerge in an economic vacuum. Different doctrines sustain different procurement systems. Different procurement systems sustain different industries. Different industries generate different political coalitions.
The Primacy wing’s doctrine supports permanent alliances, overseas bases, long procurement cycles, and the industrial ecosystems of the legacy defense contractors. The America First wing’s doctrine supports border security, domestic manufacturing, energy production, venture-backed defense technology, autonomous weapons, and rapid procurement.
Neither doctrine is reducible to economics alone. But neither can be fully understood without examining the structures of capital upon which it rests. Military strategy does not merely reflect geopolitical thought. It also reflects competing political economies of American power.
The two wings beat against one another, but they remain attached to the same imperial body. They share the same assumptions about American military superiority, the dollar-centered financial order, maritime supremacy, and denying China’s rise.
One wing finances the garrison.
The other finances the raid.
Both seek to preserve the empire. Only the business model differs.
1 In 30 Koreans Margin-Called As Kospi Crashes, Regulator Suspends New Levered ETFs, Hikes Margins https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/1-30-koreans-margin-called-stocks-crash-regulator-suspends-new-levered-etfs-hikes-margins
2 days ago, not better yet: Big Blew It! IBM Crashes Most Since ‘60s Amid CapEx Woes; Goldman Warns Over ‘Software Bear Case’ https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ibm-crashes-most-1987-customers-abruptly-shift-capex-spending
Simplicius says China has been doing this for 4 years, already: The New Third Front: China Quietly Revamps Country for War An interesting series of reports have shone light on China’s ‘quiet’ but revolutionary preparations for conflict with the US.
China has mastered the art of the silent observer. Legions of commentators spent years criticizing China for not being more active and involved in the global geopolitical theaters, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, particularly when tilting those conflicts in its own favor would have greatly benefited China.
But now portions of China’s strategy are finally coming to light, and revealing the country’s uniquely furtive approach to maintaining a semblance of balance while in actuality making unprecedented hidden preparations for the worst case scenarios. They admit that these massive measures are done under the surface, which we can only assume is a deliberate choice to conceal China’s true posture of formidable national restructuring toward hybrid-war impregnability...
..This refers to the recent report from Russia’s Global Affairs defense journal called, “The New Great Wall: The Logic of China’s Foreign Policy Behavior” “This article examines China’s comprehensive mobilization policies undertaken since the early 2020s. Analysis reveals that they span multiple domains. First, China is developing a protected inland reserve of critical industrial capacity. Second, it is strengthening emergency supply mechanisms and accelerating the accumulation of food and raw-material reserves. Third, it is enhancing civil defense and urban infrastructure resilience, including the expansion of the ‘people’s air defense’ system. Fourth, recently amended legislation now regulates military service and the government’s obligations towards fallen servicemen’s families. The scope and pace of these measures indicate that Beijing anticipates a severe military-political crisis in the coming decade. This partly explains Chinese foreign policy’s apparent contradictions, with stated global ambitions coexisting alongside strategic caution and risk aversion.” https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/articles/china-kashin-smirnova-yankova/
The fact that this report is from a Russian patriotic journal, rather than a pro-Western one with an obvious anti-Chinese bias, means that the revelations herein are particularly noteworthy.
(non-suicidal) Bulgarian premier says country has ‘no place’ in Ukraine coalition of willing - ‘I don’t believe Bulgaria’s place is in the coalition of the willing,” Radev says https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/bulgarian-premier-says-country-has-no-place-in-ukraine-coalition-of-willing/3997590
yesterday: Ukraine Shake-Up: Zelensky Sacks Popular Defense Chief, & IDs CEO Of Naftogaz As Likely Next Prime Minister https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/zelensky-remove-ukraines-reforming-young-defense-minister-ongoing-shake-report
Today people want the guy who is advancing the drone war, and reducing corruption, not the guy who will drag more “recruits” out of their cars and beds: Ukrainians hold rare wartime protest over defence minister’s dismissal For the first time since last summer’s protests in support of their country’s anti‑corruption watchdogs, Ukrainians have mobilised online over the dismissal of Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov. A wave of social media posts quickly turned into calls to gather across Ukrainian cities on Thursday.
In clear evidence of Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov’s popularity in civil society, Ukrainians have organised a rare wartime protest to defend and support him... ..Dmytro Koziatynskyi, a war veteran who was a leading organiser of last summer’s mass protests in support of NABU and SAPO, posted on social media ”The defence minister is being removed in the middle of effective – finally effective! – reforms, replaced by someone under whom any hope of reform can be forgotten,” referring to Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko, who is poised to replace Fedorov.
“I call on all caring people to come out tomorrow at 9:01 a.m. to Franko Square and show the president that we are against constant reshuffles in the government and replacing effective ministers with convenient opportunists.”... ..The deputy commander of Ukraine’s Air Force, Pavlo Yelizarov, announced his resignation on July 16, saying the dismissal of Fedorov – whose key priorities included reforming the air defence sector – would cause more casualties and destruction in Ukraine from Russian missile and drone attacks.
“I believe that the removal of M. Fedorov is a great evil for the country’s defence capability,” Yelizarov said on Facebook, attaching a copy of his resignation letter.
Other opinion leaders from the military and civil society joined the call.
Serhii Sternenko, a prominent Ukrainian activist and blogger who was Fedorov’s adviser on drone warfare said that “Mykhailo Fedorov is the best Minister of Defence in our entire history”, and called his firing “the greatest demoralisation since the war began”.
Ukraine’s ‘cardboard revolution’ - As the social media mobilisation gained pace, Ukrainians began swapping slogan ideas for hand‑made signs sketched on pieces of cardboard. https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/07/16/ukrainians-hold-rare-wartime-protest-over-defence-ministers-dismissal
Trump Says FBI Wasting Time If It Probes Conspiracy Theories About Graham’s Death https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-says-fbi-wasting-time-if-it-probes-conspiracy-theories-about-grahams-death
Widow Of Butler Rally Victim: Trump Assassination Attempt Was “An Inside Job” Two years after a gunman opened fire at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, killing one attendee and wounding President Donald Trump, the widow of the man who was slain has expressed deep skepticism about the circumstances of the attack. Helen Comperatore, whose husband Corey, a 50-year-old volunteer firefighter and father of two, was fatally shot while shielding his family, told NewsNation that she believes the July 13, 2024, assassination attempt was “an inside job.” https://www.zerohedge.com/political/widow-butler-rally-victim-trump-assassination-attempt-was-inside-job
The prosecution case is impossible on a timeline they just established. Critical incriminating-tweets by “Tyler Robinson” came well after he turned himself in and police had his phone. Kyle Young, The Tyler Robinson Preliminary Hearing
Flock now wants to keep the data forever: Flock is falling out of favor with police departments - Flock Safety is hitting a rough patch with one of its biggest customers.
US military to start screening for testosterone deficiency, Hegseth says In a video posted on X, captioned “High-T Department”, Hegseth said he was authorising thescreening programme for troops to ensure “you have the right testosterone levels to operate at your absolute best”. Troops withlow testosterone levels will be offered voluntary hormone replacement therapy. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn0nlx18rz0o
Meryl Nass MD presents lots of data in this very announcement: At 11 am I will be interviewed by Gloria Guillo and Jeremy Kuzmarov on the 2 recent Tulsi Gabbard releases on biolabs and Fauci, and on the unsolved anthrax letters case The links for YouTube and Rumble are provided below. The show can be viewed later as well.
Steve Kirsch, Voices for Vaccines is unable explain the huge increase in deaths in young children who were vaccinated compared to their unvaccinated peers - They tried to debunk the Hooker paper based on official Louisiana mortality data. They failed. Miserably. In fact, it showed that they are inept. (best they could do with “bad facts”)
Twin babies get the same poisons injected a minute apart and die together 8 nights later; “impossible”? Steve Kirsch, Shaw twins murder case relies on medical expert testimony that it is impossible for twins to die at the same time from a vaccine One problem.Twin deaths from SIDS are documented in the medical literature and in 100% of the cases, it is right after vaccination.They basically don’t have a case in my opinion. ChatGPT agreed.
There is no substitute for eating right, exercising outdoors, sleeping fully and avoiding alcohol, cigaretted and charred meats: Paul Marik MD,
PSA Screening: Promise, Pitfalls, and the Future of Prostate Cancer Detection
Climate Physicist Anastassia Makarieva and her husband Andre are back from their Siberian summer research-retreat: Between Taiga and Civilization - Uncategorized Messages from the Siberian Wilderness
Weather Recipient (pictured showing off black-eyed pea flowers in bed established in early June)
Great stuff, John – thank you for this timely compilation of sources and your own insights!
When visiting a new friend, I am always fascinated by what I find in their library (or sometimes film collection, or even on their walls). Gives me clues to thinking and aesthetics, but also places where our enthusiasms can most easily meet. Many of your sources are familiar to (and beloved by) me already, so much that I’ll seek out the rest also, just for being in such good company!
I was close-following a hundred and fifty brilliant people myself up until a few months ago – this latest mess with Iran sort of burned-out my spirit for that level of close attention. I’ve been a history nut since I was a kid, and it’s getting harder and harder to deny they are going for broke – which means tragedy beyond imagining for so many people we love – and also being called crazy for seeing it so clearly (since 1999, in my case) by those who would rather bury their heads as long as possible (instead of trying to plan to thwart the madness, or at least soften the blow).
Also – thank you doubly, as a boomer and physician, for not forgetting about victims of shots. I had three close friends hospitalized because of them, during the madness, and lost my patience with denialist boomers then, also (still haven’t even noticed every single kid subjected to these protocols experienced life-changing harm – so outrageous – so, thank you for representing for the ‘beloved exception’ faction I always take trouble to note).
Cheers, John – and do please excuse me if I find myself irresistably playing Dr John’s version of “Big Chief” in my head, as an energetic and enlivening soundtrack! ;o)
PS - WRT to the ‘seat of empire’ question – you might get a kick out of this recent tilt
https://paulsnyders.substack.com/p/mything-inaction
Thank you Dr. Day.