From Unexpected Quarters
Surprised Again,
Pepe Escobar, Unconquerable Yemen Ansarallah won’t back down, staring down the Empire in the Red Sea: “When American soldiers are killed in the Red Sea, what will they say to their people and families? Will they claim they were killed for the liberation of their country, or will they say they were killed to protect the Zionist terrorists?”
Unconquerable. https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/04/01/unconquerable-yemen/
Yemeni Missiles Hit US Warships! Middle East on Edge! Pepe Escobar talks with Nima about Yemen disabling the carrier-based command, control and surveillance AWACS plane of the USS Truman battle group, an A2 Hawkeye, and the reduced activity of the group in the past few days. The USS Carl Vinson carrier battle group is now going to join it off the Yemeni coast. Escobar had a week or so in Yemen, as above, with high and mid-level meetings. Yemen has been under attack for 10 years and is taking it in stride, sustained by spiritual morality, which would be destroyed by flinching, so they remain resolute and positive, despite 20 bombings per day, mainly on residential areas, because the US does not have good intelligence on the ground. He takes the stance that the US may actually be gearing up to obliterate Yemen, not Iran, which would still serve Zionist interests well, further isolating Iran by destroying Iran's last intact ally in the Axis of Resistance. This is a very real concern for him. Escobar disparages the clownlike-team-Trump, which I see as analytical weakness. Team Trump is inscrutable in some ways, but wholeheartedly pushing Israeli Zionist agendas now. He thinks Trump is trying to clear the deck in Ukraine so that he can enact Israel's "final solution", which is what Trump seems to be doing, and which may be the case. He makes a strong point about Iran declaring that a major US attack would "force it to do what it does not wish to do", make and use nuclear weapons. (I have seen analysis that Iran would likely use such a weapon as an EMP device about 30 miles above the Israeli-Palestinian coast, to knock out Israel's electric grid. My own understanding is that Lebanon, Jordan, Syria and Egypt could not really be spared from that attack.)
Russia calls US threats of war against Iran 'unacceptable'
US President Donald Trump said over the weekend that ‘there will be bombing’ if Iran does not ‘make a deal’ on the nuclear issue https://thecradle.co/articles/russia-calls-us-threats-of-war-against-iran-unacceptable
Sanders Leads Charge To Block Arms To Israel, Senate Votes Down Overwhelmingly https://www.zerohedge.com/political/sanders-leads-charge-block-arms-sales-israel-senate-votes-down-overwhelmingly
Israel Seizes Rafah In Expanded Operation, Hundreds Of Thousands Flee https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israel-seizes-rafah-expanded-operation-hundreds-thousands-flee
Hamas Ready To Free All Hostages At Once For Permanent Truce https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/hamas-ready-free-all-hostages-once-permanent-truce
Gail Tverberg's prescient analysis from December 4, 2024, the last days of "Biden": The world economy needs to simplify Economic growth and added complexity sound like they would be good, but at some point, the combination gets to be too much–simplification is needed.
Too much of the world’s income starts going to non-working individuals and to high-earning workers in privileged fields. Ordinary working citizens start to say, “Wait a minute, there is not enough left for my everyday expenses. The system needs to change.” Elections lead to the selection of politicians who want war, or who want to overturn the current system. The system then changes in a way that leads to less spending on healthcare and other complexities.
In this post, I will try to explain a bit of the underlying problem and give some hints at what the simplification might look like. Part of the problem is too little energy supply. This is a problem that cannot be told to the public; it would be too distressing. In this post, I present the result of a recent academic study that has attempted to recalibrate the findings of the 1972 Limits to Growth study with updated data... ..Uranium is in short supply, as well. The issue for uranium is that the world’s supply of nuclear warheads that could temporarily serve as a supplement to currently mined uranium is running short. These warheads belonged primarily to the US and to Russia, but Russia has sold a substantial amount of its warheads to the US, to be down-blended for use in nuclear power reactors... ..Without enough energy resources per person, the world will likely need to produce fewer goods and services in total. Some uses for energy products, and for the goods and services that can be made with energy products, need to disappear... ..The self-organizing economy tends to push the world in the direction of contraction. How this will work is not at all clear. Most people didn’t understand the response to Covid-19 as a way to cut back oil consumption. It is possible that future changes will, to some extent, come from cutbacks directed by government organizations that are as difficult to understand as the Covid-19 restrictions... ..The book The Limits to Growth, published in 1972, modeled when world resources would run short, relative to growing world population... The original 1972 analysis, in its base model, suggested that resources would start to run short about now. An article called, “Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the World3 model” by Arjuna Nebel and others was published earlier this year in the Journal of Industrial Ecology. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jiec.13442 The summary exhibit of their findings is shown here as Figure 8.
On Figure 8,Recalibration23 is the name given to the new model output. The BAU dotted line shows the indications from the base (business as usual) 1972 model. I found the coloring a little confusing, so I added the labels “Industrial Output” and “Population” to better mark what I consider the two most important model outputs. Food Production per capita is the green line, which is also important. The calculations are all made in terms of the weight of physical quantities of materials used, for the world as a whole. The financial system is not modeled... ..I find this forecast disturbing. Industrial output per capita (which would include things like automobiles, farm machinery, and computers) is shown as already steeply declining by 2025 in the updated model. This trend is much clearer than in the 1972 model. By 2050, industrial output per capita is a small fraction of the amount it was at peak.
Food output per capita is shown to start dropping about 2025. Based on my understanding of the 1972 Limits to Growth analysis, this change might reflect a shift away from meat-eating, rather than simply fewer total calories per person.
World population follows a curve similar to that of the 1972 Limits to Growth analysis with a peak in world population at perhaps about 2030... ..Figure 8 indicates that world industrial production is expected to be the first type of output to drop. This makes sense if energy supply is quite limited or is high-priced. Without adequate inexpensive energy supply, a country is likely to cut back on manufacturing its own goods. Instead, it tries to buy from countries with less expensive sources of energy supply.
For example, US industrial production per capita has been falling since 1973. The year 1973 was the year when oil prices first spiked... A larger share of manufactured goods needed to be imported from countries with lower-cost fuel supply. Oil needed to be used sparingly because of its high cost. Coal, used heavily in Asia, was typically much cheaper... ..China took the lead in industrial production after it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, but now it is running into obstacles... A... great deal of China’s growth was financed by debt. As long as China’s exports were growing very rapidly, this was not a problem. But as growth has slowed, China’s debt has become difficult to repay with interest... The level of conflict between China and other countries has grown... ..The world is increasingly operating in a “not enough to go around” mode for scarce resources. At the same time, countries need to somewhat get along. So we get strange narratives in the press giving rationalizations for actions by both sides, without mentioning the shortage issue.
Figure 8 shows that once industrialization drops, food production also begins to fall, but not as quickly. This makes sense because everyone recognizes that food is essential. The falling calories likely reflect people increasingly moving from meat to vegetable products.
Somehow, world population becomes poorer, but the level of population does not drop nearly as rapidly as the drop in industrialization. Simplification is likely to take place in significant steps, perhaps at the time of strange events, such as those occurring in 2020. These are a few ways simplification might take place: [list] https://ourfiniteworld.com/2024/12/04/the-world-economy-needs-to-simplify/
President Trump Ends Duty-Free De Minimis Treatment for All Chinese Goods Congress in 2015 ... raised the de minimis threshold from $200 to $800. However, the e-commerce world exploded, and Chinese companies began using the de minimis loophole to ship cheap goods (ex. Temu and Shein) into the USA direct to consumers without paying any customs duty...The de minimis exemption has been cancelled for all products coming out of China. The rule change only targets China and Chinese shippers. No one else. The minimum duty is $25, and the tariff rate is 30% for all products mailed from China into the USA that previously qualified under the de minimis rule.
Beyond tariffs or sector specific countervailing duties, the removal of China to use the $800 de minimis exemption will destroy their economy. There is no way for manufacturers in China, marketed into the USA, to be able to survive if they are forced to collect and organize the requirements for U.S. custom and import duties. They will simply dissolve. https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2025/04/03/president-trump-ends-duty-free-de-minimis-treatment-for-all-chinese-goods/#more-270731
There will be negotiations... China Strikes Back: Slaps 34% Tariff On US Goods After Trump's 'Liberation Day' https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-strikes-back-slaps-34-tariff-us-goods-after-trumps-liberation-day
Everything Is Crashing After China Retaliates With 34% Tariffs On US Goods https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/everything-crashing-after-china-retaliates-34-tariffs-us-goods
Stocks Reverse Plunge, Jump After Trump Says Open To Deal With Vietnam, Tells Powell To Cut Rates https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-reverse-plunge-jump-after-trump-says-open-deal-vietnam-tells-powell-cut-rates
Trump Says China "Played It Wrong" On Retaliatory Tariffs — Now Beijing Faces Three Options Concede defeat to whatever terms Trump demands
Devalue the yuan by 20-40%
Unleash biggest fiscal stimulus in its history (talking $2-3 trillion) which will push its debt off the chart https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-strikes-back-slaps-34-tariff-us-goods-after-trumps-liberation-day
The Trump administration was sued by a nonprofit civil rights group on April 3, with the organization saying that President Donald Trump overstepped his authority when he imposed tariffs on Chinese imports. https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-admin-sued-over-chinese-import-tariffs
Even Israel... A ‘blow’ to the global economy: World leaders react to Trump’s tariff onslaught The US president has levied duties ranging from 10% to 49% on virtually all of the country’s trading partners https://swentr.site/news/615178-trump-tariffs-global-reaction/
Simplicius, Trump's "Liberation Day": Another PR Gag, or Global Reorientation Turning Point? Many believe Trump’s grandiose vision to be too little too late, but a counterargument is that the world is now in a race to the bottom, with European nations well ahead of the pack. Trump may not rekindle an American golden age, but his bold and drastic actions will likely tighten the yoke around European vassals, ensuring American supremacy in that quarter of the world for years to come. The big question that will remain is how competitive can America ever realistically become against China... ..Russia was not included amongst Trump’s tariffs because sanctions on Russia have resulted in little trade that can be measurably tariffed. Several outlets rebutted this explanation... If true, this would be an interesting development, as it would mean the US-Russia rapprochement is much deeper than assumed, and Trump could be banking on ingratiating himself to Russia as a way to truly turn the world on its head with an unprecedented eventual partnership between the two superpowers.
This comes amidst Putin’s personal presidential economic development envoy Kirill Dmitriev landing in D.C. today, along with full media circuit: Video 1, Video 2. Dmitriev is a Kiev-born, US-raised, Goldman Sachs-trained financier who’s got a unique handle on the lay of the land. His recent rise to prominence clearly indicates the coming together of Russian and American business interests and thawing of relations, which could be a positive sign for Trump’s long term global reorientation strategy.
This means the end of the $US as global reserve currency. Bitcoin? Gold? Here's Why Trump Will Win the Tariff Standoff Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made it clear in an interview with CNN that the era of trade imbalances is over, and under President Trump, the U.S. will no longer tolerate unfair treatment... ..“Remember that the history of trade is, we are the deficit country. The deficit country has an advantage,” he explained. “[The others] are the surplus countries. The surplus countries traditionally always lose any kind of a trade escalation.” https://pjmedia.com/matt-margolis/2025/04/03/heres-why-trump-will-win-the-tariff-standoff-n4938553#google_vignette
Putin Envoy In D.C. Hails Trump's Tariff Strategy: 'Shift Toward Economic Sovereignty' Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of Russia’s Direct Investment Fund and special Putin envoy who was sent this week to meet with top US officials in Washington, has said his two-days of meetings went well and that positive steps were made.
"I would say that today and yesterday, we made three steps forward on a large number of issues," Dmitriev said after meeting with Steve Witkoff, President Trump’s Middle East envoy, who has also been deeply involved in Ukraine negotiations... ..Dmitriev told CNN in a fresh interview that he conveyed to the Trump administration that Moscow is ready to do business again with American companies.
"At this point, we are not asking for any sanction relief. We are just discussing that if America wants to have more business with Russia... then of course US can do so," he said.
He warned that both sides must overcome the lack of communication which marked the opening three years of war in Ukraine. "Therefore, the process of dialogue, the process of resolution will take some time, but it is definitely positive and constructive," he described.
Dmitriev was in the US during the 'Liberation day' tariff rollout, praising a policy that reflects "a growing shift toward economic sovereignty and national interest."... ..He additionally stated in a separate interview while in D.C., "If President Putin commits to something, it gets done. Putin is a historic leader. Trump is a historic leader. They can work together to make history happen. If they cannot achieve major progress, few leaders can." https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putin-envoy-dc-hails-trumps-tariff-strategy-shift-toward-economic-sovereignty
Gilbert Doctorow, Jeffrey Sachs and the nonsense of our best known economists with respect to the Trump tariffs The reforms are only partially about economics. I insist that their basic driving force is exactly the same as drives Donald Trump’s wrecking ball approach to U.S. foreign policy, namely to bring back sovereignty by withdrawing from all alliances of every kind – economic, defense – and reordering the world around relations between the three or four Great Powers on this planet, the United States, China, Russia and India. The guiding principle will be national interest, not ideology, not democratic versus authoritarian countries and the other hogwash that has passed for guiding principles these past decades under both Democratic and Republican administrations.
Trump talks about putting an end to the rip-off of the United States by its friends as well as by its foes through long acquiescence in their unfair trading practices that are obstacles to U.S. exports and feed into the presently unsustainable trade deficits each year, which this year are well in excess of one trillion dollars. In effect, he is proposing to end the subventions and overly favorable trade concessions to allies to buy their loyalty which explain U.S. indulgence up to now. Their loyalty is no more a matter of interest to Washington, which will deal only with its peers, the Great Powers. Though one may object that the highest tariffs will be applied precisely to a ‘foe,’ the Great Power, China, I believe that in this one case the parties will enter into negotiations to arrive at a less punitive tariff system for the sake of their other common interests as fellow members of the world’s governing board. https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2025/04/04/jeffrey-sachs-and-the-nonsense-of-our-best-known-economists-with-respect-to-the-trump-tariffs/
Jeffrey Sachs. thanks to Zerosum: Trump’s Absurd Trade Policies Will Impoverish Americans and Harm the World https://www.unz.com/article/trumps-absurd-trade-policies-will-impoverish-americans-and-harm-the-world/
Canada will lead the world – PM
Ottawa is ready to fill Washington’s “global economic leadership” role, Mark Carney has said https://swentr.site/news/615252-us-canada-world-leader/
More Doctorow, News X World (India): Russia launches deadly drone strike As I began to say, when Finnish president Stubb visited Trump for a round of golf in Mar-a-Lago and spent 7 hours with the President, I assumed that this did not look good for the Russians, since Stubb has been one of the most Russophobic leaders in the EU. However, within a couple of days it became clear that Trump had given Stubb a good lesson on what's what and who's who in this world, not the other way around. Stubb was now quoted by journalists as saying that Europe should prepare for normalizing relations with Russia. Then yesterday he added to this, saying someone among the European leaders should take the initiative and make contact with Putin. He specifically named Britain and-or France as the best candidates for the job.
Zelensky Says NATO Membership Still In Ukraine's Future, Contradicting Trump https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/zelensky-says-nato-membership-still-ukraines-future-contradicting-trump
What's he know? United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio surprised NATO counterparts by telling them on Friday that it will become clear within "weeks" if Russia is "serious" about actually reaching a ceasefire in Ukraine. The statement was issued at the close of a two-day meeting of the Western military alliance's foreign ministers in Brussels, Belgium. "We will know soon enough, in a matter of weeks, not months, whether Russia is serious about peace or not. I hope they are," Rubio said. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/were-giving-putin-weeks-not-months-decide-ceasefire-rubio
Let them talk, please. Trump’s inner circle opposes new Putin call – NBC News US President Donald Trump’s advisers are urging him to not call his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, before Moscow commits to a full ceasefire in the Ukraine conflict, NBC News reported on Thursday citing two anonymous officials.
The US leader previously told the media outlet that he intends to talk with Putin again, potentially as soon as this week, following their previous conversation on March 18. Trump, who is trying to mediate a truce between Moscow and Kiev after more than three years of hostilities, stated on Tuesday that Putin and Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky are “ready to make a deal” thanks to his efforts. https://swentr.site/news/615224-trump-putin-phone-call/
South Korea's Top Court Ousts Impeached President Yoon Over Martial Law Declaration
While some hope the decision will end the country's biggest political crisis in decades, South Koreans must now choose a new president at a time of intense internal discord, alongside an economic shock in the form of President Trump's 25% tariff. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/south-koreas-top-court-ousts-impeached-president-yoon-over-martial-law-declaration
Media Eviscerated For Claiming Jailing Marine Le Pen Is ‘Good For Democracy’ Democracy does not include imprisoning the likely winner TIME Magazine is facing backlash for declaring that the conviction of French populist politician Marine Le Pen on a trumped up bureaucratic charge “was a good day for French democracy.” https://modernity.news/2025/04/02/media-eviscerated-for-claiming-jailing-marine-le-pen-is-good-for-democracy/
‘Free Le Pen’ – Trump to France US President Donald Trump has accused the French political establishment of employing lawfare against right-wing figure Marine Le Pen, urging Paris to “free” her. On Monday, a Paris court sentenced Le Pen to four years in prison and imposed a five-year ban on her eligibility for public office, effectively preventing her from running in the 2027 presidential election. https://swentr.site/news/615221-trump-le-pen-sentence/
Jim Kunstler, You Wouldn't Want to Be Him on That Dreadful Day John Roberts has been found listed on the Jeffrey Epstein flight logs of the “Lolita Express” bound for Little St. James Island in the US Virgin Islands, Epstein’s supposed party shack for the celebrity elite.
EU could fine Elon Musk’s X $1B over illicit content, disinformation
X's Global Government Affairs team said that if the reports about the EU's plans are true, it’s an “unprecedented act of political censorship.” https://cointelegraph.com/news/eu-could-fine-elon-musk-x-based-on-tesla-space-x-revenue
Not managing control-narratives well: "It's Un-American" - 19 Democratic State AGs Sue To Stop Trump Blocking Non-Citizen Voting https://www.zerohedge.com/political/its-un-american-19-democratic-state-ags-sue-stop-trump-blocking-non-citizen-voting
Spartacus, USAID - The Devil Incarnate: How did the mainstream media manage to lionize one of the most objectively evil organizations in existence?
A Midwestern Doctor looks into institutional psychology, misunderstanding what would lose your job, and "groupthink": Why Did The FDA Hide Vaccine Injuries? How Peter Marks' role in the COVID vaccine debacle exposed the flaws in America's toxic health bureaucracy
Meryl Nass MD has some really good visuals and graphics: What globalist strategies have been postulated for centralizing control?
A context for evaluating our changing world
Dr. Nass has hopeful news. Notice what's not getting cut. WHO is in much worse financial shape than it admitted just days ago WHO had been spending over $4 Billion per year recently, but now it only has $2.4 Billion (or less) for the next two years (2026 and 2027)
Sasha Latypova on the public-health battlefield, continues AMD's theme: Meltdown at the FDA while 23 States, 2 Governors +DC Sue HHS/Sec Kennedy In the meantime, the PREP Act declaration for covid pandemic remains in place
Spike-protein inflames arteries and makes blood clot. COVID-19 mRNA Injection Spike Protein Expressed in Cerebral Arteries of Stroke Patients for Up to 17 Months Vaccine mRNA and Spike protein found in hemorrhagic stroke patients' brains — confirming human biodistribution to vital organs
And furthermore... "Surge in brain tumours among nurses at Boston hospital triggers urgent inquiry" Was an especially oncogenic hot lot delivered to hospital?
This reflects autoimmune disease. Peter McCullough MD, Spike Protein Induces the Antinuclear Antibody (ANA) Autoimmune Conditions Explained by Analysis of Spike Protein, Strong Impetus for Spike Detoxification
Measles Vaccine Death in Previously Healthy Baby after Leukemia Develops Future Immunocompromise Cannot be Predicted, Vaccine Virus Mutates to Kill Girl The measles vaccine is a live attenuated vaccine. In this case, the vaccine measles virus hypermutated to a fatal strain that invaded the brain and killed the child. Chances are if the child was unvaccinated, the AML would have been treated in the usual fashion with a good chance at survival. The 5-year survival rate for children with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) diagnosed before age 2 is around 60-70%, with some subtypes having higher survival rates... ..Very rare deaths with measles must be weighed with equally rare cases of vaccine deaths. It is exceeding difficult for the human mind to factor in any event occurring less than one percent of the time.
Linoleic acid content in seed oils accelerates breast cancer growth. Direct sensing of dietary ω-6 linoleic acid through FABP5-mTORC1 signaling https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40080571/
The effect of aspartame and sucralose intake on body weight measures and blood metabolites: role of their form (solid and/or liquid) of ingestion ..All rats had free access to food and water for 7 weeks. Energy intake, body weight and body composition were monitored and blood metabolites were determined. Results showed that aspartame ingestion significantly increased body weight and fat mass mainly due to an increase in energy efficiency. The effect was related to the amount rather than the form of ingestion. Additionally, aspartame ingestion was associated with glucose intolerance. Sucralose ingestion had a similar impact to that of aspartame though to a lesser extent. In conclusion, 7-week ingestion of aspartame and sucralose had adverse effects on body measures that were not related to the form of ingestion. ["Nutra-Sweet" & "Splenda"] https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9301525/
(Et tu, Stevia?) Not Sweet Nothings: Why Splenda and Stevia Can Make You Gain Weight https://www.forksoverknives.com/wellness/artificial-sweeteners-can-make-you-gain-weight/
Sick of Fakes (pictured pulling a weed in the bean row)
Thank you John for this outstanding portal to world events. I have come to rely on your analysis in addition to the excellent offerings at Automatic Earth to shape my understanding of geopolitics. As the bottom bracket spins, so does our world.
Some good stories and analysis there, doc. I vehemently disagree with the premise behind the book The Limits to Growth, published in 1972. The analysis since then has not done anything except to make claims supporting this book (which the globalists and eugenicists are using as rationale to kill us off). The fact remains that food and funds meant to go to people are wasted and stolen by corrupt leaders. There's also a large amount of food waste that happens, and also subsidies paid to NOT produce food and keep market prices higher.
With regards to energy, we have dedicated more and more energy to AI, and companies are clamoring for more. The quantity "needed" for THEIR BUSINESS PURPOSES is becoming a multiple of our own country's entire household needs.
The reality is that this world is able to adequately sustain the world's populations, if there weren't so many non-essential "needs" and far fewer examples of fraud, waste and abuse. It's our lifestyles and unquenched growth in business uses for energy that are affecting us. Poor policy regarding unsustainable "Green energy" realities and dismissal of other energy platforms (not to mention - for instance in Germany) political decisions that further undercut the availability of energy sources are further exacerbating the perception of a lack of energy.
In short, the premise of that book was purposefully shaped to promote and justify a globalist agenda and further controls on us, and increasing income opportunities for them.