Holy moly that was a good one John. The Turchin, TAE, HughSmith, Surplus Economic/ Dr John Day synthesis was stunning. I’m a read twice homey. I planted a burr oak from seed 6 years ago and it is 4 m tall. A real gift.
Good work, Brother. I appreciated the story you linked to on TAE, about companies not hiring whites, and deaths of despair.
I did really work on that Turchin analysis today. I think he's essentially right, but I can now see who funds him making those models, because they want to use them, including on us (even if you are down under).
The "Petrodollar" exists as long as oil is only sold in $US and countries like Saudi Arabia buy US Treasury debt. Both parts of that are fading, fading, fading...
Shipping credits are a big deal, however they might be managed. High counterparty risk kills distance trade, and must be managed to the satisfaction of all parties.
It's worth noting that from the outside (the non-empire view} the accumulating failures in Afghanistan, Syria, Ukraine, failed regime changes, sanctions, are attributed to a blind American obsession with programming and technology. All the above are typical examples. The problem is: garbage in, garbage out. The only exception is how this might apply to USA itself, yet much of this doesn't seem rocket science.
Secondly, re Charles Hugh Smith 'why don't I support military service?' for all his interesting theorising he misses the simple point that the US military does NOT function like the rest of the world's - whose militaries are designed for national defence, in which case mandatory military service is a tremendous plus. The US military instead is employed exclusively as an expeditionary force in service to predation. For anyone with an ounce of morality this is almost impossible to justify.
The US State department and US intelligence agencies have been busy analysing the Rest of the World [ROW] since Truman, and along with the Israelis, think they have each country down pat. Not only, that they know more than the actual citizens of those countries about their own country and cultures. The first result was Radio Free Europe, laughable propaganda wherever it was broadcast but whose real usefulness lay in the targeted audiences learning the unconscious prejudices and assumptions and permissable boundariess for dealings at state level, ie the US's weak points and blindnesses. Thus the cultures of European countries continued to flourish under the radar despite occupation.
Since circa 2000 and the switchover to programming from (faulty) diplomacy, the deaf-and-blindness of the by-then-hegemon has increased exponentially. Everything they do, and especially the motives, is obvious to all, and thus almost every speech a lie, and too often ridiculous, laughable.
I'd say we've been at civil war for quite some time. Pretty soon the liquidity in the spot market of conflict resolution will dry up and we'll be stuck with a huge sell-buy spread that will create a gamma melt-up in conflict. The peacemakers are leaving the spot market. The eff off & die cohort is expanding rapidly. Since lawfare has been going on for 20 years or so (Patriot Act being year 0), we could be looking at disregard for the law spreading from the lower classes to the middle classes. Once that happens, it's calls on violence and the strike price might be 1 million dead elites.
One would want to eschew large urban areas with vast unemployed young adult populations. There are other measures to take, but location seems paramount.
For SF they'd just cut the Bay Bridge, San Mateo Bridge, and the Dumbarton Bridge and supply us from San Jose and by ship. The East Bay would burn which sucks for them. SF has too many key data centers and Northern California's electrical infrastructure was upgraded to serve downtown SF. No matter what goes down, I doubt places like Manhattan, or SF will burn too bad. Even during the French Revolution, Paris was the source more than the victim of revolutionary activity. Who knows? The youth as you stated in another article are not in military condition. Maybe middle aged men will beat the crap out of them. I'm more worried about a fascist type scenario popping up where disgruntled veterans and people with specialized skills decide they've had enough lawfare. Who knows where that would end? My fear is that the first group organized enough to go after the elites also has a big list of other enemies and will go after them next. It could be as limited and principled as expungement of anyone who illegally immigrated to the US, regardless of their current status (and their children most likely), to white nationalists killing/expelling all non-whites. This is the problem with hoping for a revolution: it moves unpredictably.
You've seen riots on video, I presume. Also, humans who want things ambush other humans, watch for opportunities.
Don't be prey around human hunters.
Elites can deal with other elites. That's going on, but they hide it from us.
You can see the stuff going on against Trump and Kennedy, and even forbidding Republican candidates to talk to each other on TV news.
Lots of elite stress is showing.
It's time for a chnge at the helm. Things will worsen until that happens.
The current gang of criminal perverts has been secretly taking covert actions against the country for a decade or more, not counting 9/11...
They can't do anything constructive, so they keep sniping at anybody and everybody they don't like, and the rest of us get sniped and blamed.
I think "white nationalists" are a projection of the current elite cabal to keep their current rag-tag coalition together, and to justify targeting their main competition, which would do a better and more rational job.
The elite stress is showing, but the pressure points they hit are real. The white homeland crew is real and strong and dangerous. Are they the top threat? I don't think so. More than a projection. Just because FJB's admin says they're a top threat doesn't mean they aren't. My interview with Chad X and other conversations with him have helped me see the infrastructure. Many people who would be kind to you are vicious to me and they have power. You'd be surprised. But the elites are desperate to pull out that card. It can blow back on them hard. As far as organized opposition is concerned? Limited.
Ever visited Victoria , Texas. You might like it better than SF. 60,000 people, almost coastal, good Thai food, not expensive, nice people from all over...
Nah. This coastal shit is overrated. I'm native SF. People like me are the amenity that all these twats from around the world came to experience. But then they went from loving this subversive bohemian attitude to ultra-mommy-state fascists and have been squeezing my nuts ever since. This supposed 'coastal' attitude is actually small town Americans coming to SF to implement woke ideas they were conditioned into 'learning' in school. SF refugees are not wokesters... don't conflate shitbots who moved to SF and lived here a 'long' time with actual San Franciscans. They are small town locusts who stripped my city clean and are now busy destroying small, tourist- town America.
I'm one of the last people who knows the DEEP secrets of SF. It doesn't matter that they censor me. All the time, I hear my own arguments repeated by strangers on Nextdoor or in neighborhoods. Someone has to keep the fight going here. I loudly lecture in public when out to dinner or hanging in a neighborhood when my friend or acquaintance asks me 'why is it like this in SF?' The word is getting out about the pension pirates and the way the 9th District Court is corrupt and that all political figures in SF depend on blackmail and mutually assured destruction to keep the corrupt city machine moving. It's not the 'word on the street,' it's MY word on the street. Hard to prove unless you live here and see how NPC most office degenerates are. There's rarely an honest, or original idea uttered on the street. Truly, the words of the prophets are written on the subway walls and tenement halls.
You'll find similar crises across much of Western Europe, albeit with unique national flavours distinct from the USA.
Oligarchies also control most Western European nations, much to the chagrin of the still occupying military forces of the USA. What an outrage, European billionaires jousting with US overlords, eh?
The inhumanity displayed by the elites can be summed up in one simple question they never, ever answer: 'Just why do you think that you increasing your wealth from £10bn to £20bn has a single benefit to the majority of humankind?'
For them, they're still in the game of Monopoly, still building houses on Park Lane and Mayfair.
It's always dangerous when children's games are framed to end with one person owning everything and everyone else owning nothing.
If you could obtain a 5% annual return on £1bn, then living off the interest of the interest would give you £2.5m a year to live off. Dreadful pittance, eh? Especially if your property were mortgage free and the business portfolio funded the upkeep of the family home. School fees for two: 4%. Cars: 3%. Holidays: 3% (must fly business class, darling!); charity 10%; clubs and entertainment: 5%; private healthcare: 2.5%; gardeners and cleaners: 2.5%. Still leaves 70% for taxes, a nest egg for the children etc etc.
Of course, if you have to spend £10m a year maintaining a private jet; £20m a year of thoroughbred racing outlays; £20m investing in vintage wine; £50m bribing politicians and oligarchs, then £2.5m is absolute penury.
But forgive the 7.49bn humans who don't really have any time for your spoilt indulgences.
Hard to feel optimistic after reading this. So, if we survive the slavery intended for us by the perps of the COVID fraud, we'll have civil war to look forward to. Oh goody, we're all gonna die. (Country Joe and the Fish).
No, they are grasping at straws and taking chances that keep setting them back, losing doubled-down bets. It looks like they have been trying to make civil-war, but the conservatives are too wise to bite.
It seems that all the principled moral stances that used to make me a liberal, now make me a conservative, even with that same little pony-tail I've had for so long.
Just when I figured that I was a Liberal, that name got black-balled. Ditto Leftist. No pony tail for me. I guess I am anonymous, which these days seems to be the safest approach. I am no longer sure what all those labels mean, which is probably 'their" intention. Don't cut your hair!
Nice to know I am not the only one confused by the current labels. I figure if I'm confused, the the labels are meaningless.
We only have the time we have. Sisyphus knew the futility but he kept rolling that rock knowing a trapped body but free mind/spirit. I’m trying to just head in the direction of good dharma with patience for myself and all involved. Chin up, it’s bleak but we have each other.
Ok read twice. Yes Turchin, he’s been a feature of my thinking for years particularly around the concept of intra-elite competition- which I believe very much exists and doesn’t clash with CJ Hopkins idea of deviant behaviour within the group. The group as a whole now favour totalitarian systems but members such as Elon and young non-generational wealth holders are somewhat identified with commoners and Putin is identified with Russian ness.
Dear dirt worshipper, I think favouring 'totaliarian systems' is a symptom of desparation as the so called "elites" best laid plans go south even and despite the temporary triumph and respite of the covid episode. What no longer works by persuasion now demands enforcement if control is to be maintained. Consider the hesitancy around introducing new 'pandemics', the clot shot, the WHO machine. They beaver on - what else can they do - in the face of growing mass skepticism and distrust.
Holy moly that was a good one John. The Turchin, TAE, HughSmith, Surplus Economic/ Dr John Day synthesis was stunning. I’m a read twice homey. I planted a burr oak from seed 6 years ago and it is 4 m tall. A real gift.
Good work, Brother. I appreciated the story you linked to on TAE, about companies not hiring whites, and deaths of despair.
I did really work on that Turchin analysis today. I think he's essentially right, but I can now see who funds him making those models, because they want to use them, including on us (even if you are down under).
Is the end of the petro-dollar a real possibility ?
If so that could be a very destabilising factor
The "Petrodollar" exists as long as oil is only sold in $US and countries like Saudi Arabia buy US Treasury debt. Both parts of that are fading, fading, fading...
Foreigners are not buying so much US Treasury debt, so who does that leave?
Maybe commodities and bullion will be "safer" in the next crisis.
Maybe "safe" is relative. Maybe "lucky" will be better.
Today is an interesting day, Mr. Putin's Birthday, and much, much more...
;-(
Shipping credits are a big deal, however they might be managed. High counterparty risk kills distance trade, and must be managed to the satisfaction of all parties.
I think everything can fade and drift for awhile. That might be better than abrupt discontinuities. I think it may even be happening.
It's worth noting that from the outside (the non-empire view} the accumulating failures in Afghanistan, Syria, Ukraine, failed regime changes, sanctions, are attributed to a blind American obsession with programming and technology. All the above are typical examples. The problem is: garbage in, garbage out. The only exception is how this might apply to USA itself, yet much of this doesn't seem rocket science.
Secondly, re Charles Hugh Smith 'why don't I support military service?' for all his interesting theorising he misses the simple point that the US military does NOT function like the rest of the world's - whose militaries are designed for national defence, in which case mandatory military service is a tremendous plus. The US military instead is employed exclusively as an expeditionary force in service to predation. For anyone with an ounce of morality this is almost impossible to justify.
Garbage in, garbage out (GIGO).
The US State department and US intelligence agencies have been busy analysing the Rest of the World [ROW] since Truman, and along with the Israelis, think they have each country down pat. Not only, that they know more than the actual citizens of those countries about their own country and cultures. The first result was Radio Free Europe, laughable propaganda wherever it was broadcast but whose real usefulness lay in the targeted audiences learning the unconscious prejudices and assumptions and permissable boundariess for dealings at state level, ie the US's weak points and blindnesses. Thus the cultures of European countries continued to flourish under the radar despite occupation.
Since circa 2000 and the switchover to programming from (faulty) diplomacy, the deaf-and-blindness of the by-then-hegemon has increased exponentially. Everything they do, and especially the motives, is obvious to all, and thus almost every speech a lie, and too often ridiculous, laughable.
So what do you think "we" should do to reclaim our rightful hegemony and convince TROTW that we are truthful and honorable?
;-} (sarc)
That was Spartacus, who is a longstanding pacifist, who was explaining his rejection of the (US) military.
I'd say we've been at civil war for quite some time. Pretty soon the liquidity in the spot market of conflict resolution will dry up and we'll be stuck with a huge sell-buy spread that will create a gamma melt-up in conflict. The peacemakers are leaving the spot market. The eff off & die cohort is expanding rapidly. Since lawfare has been going on for 20 years or so (Patriot Act being year 0), we could be looking at disregard for the law spreading from the lower classes to the middle classes. Once that happens, it's calls on violence and the strike price might be 1 million dead elites.
One would want to eschew large urban areas with vast unemployed young adult populations. There are other measures to take, but location seems paramount.
For SF they'd just cut the Bay Bridge, San Mateo Bridge, and the Dumbarton Bridge and supply us from San Jose and by ship. The East Bay would burn which sucks for them. SF has too many key data centers and Northern California's electrical infrastructure was upgraded to serve downtown SF. No matter what goes down, I doubt places like Manhattan, or SF will burn too bad. Even during the French Revolution, Paris was the source more than the victim of revolutionary activity. Who knows? The youth as you stated in another article are not in military condition. Maybe middle aged men will beat the crap out of them. I'm more worried about a fascist type scenario popping up where disgruntled veterans and people with specialized skills decide they've had enough lawfare. Who knows where that would end? My fear is that the first group organized enough to go after the elites also has a big list of other enemies and will go after them next. It could be as limited and principled as expungement of anyone who illegally immigrated to the US, regardless of their current status (and their children most likely), to white nationalists killing/expelling all non-whites. This is the problem with hoping for a revolution: it moves unpredictably.
You've seen riots on video, I presume. Also, humans who want things ambush other humans, watch for opportunities.
Don't be prey around human hunters.
Elites can deal with other elites. That's going on, but they hide it from us.
You can see the stuff going on against Trump and Kennedy, and even forbidding Republican candidates to talk to each other on TV news.
Lots of elite stress is showing.
It's time for a chnge at the helm. Things will worsen until that happens.
The current gang of criminal perverts has been secretly taking covert actions against the country for a decade or more, not counting 9/11...
They can't do anything constructive, so they keep sniping at anybody and everybody they don't like, and the rest of us get sniped and blamed.
I think "white nationalists" are a projection of the current elite cabal to keep their current rag-tag coalition together, and to justify targeting their main competition, which would do a better and more rational job.
The elite stress is showing, but the pressure points they hit are real. The white homeland crew is real and strong and dangerous. Are they the top threat? I don't think so. More than a projection. Just because FJB's admin says they're a top threat doesn't mean they aren't. My interview with Chad X and other conversations with him have helped me see the infrastructure. Many people who would be kind to you are vicious to me and they have power. You'd be surprised. But the elites are desperate to pull out that card. It can blow back on them hard. As far as organized opposition is concerned? Limited.
Ever visited Victoria , Texas. You might like it better than SF. 60,000 people, almost coastal, good Thai food, not expensive, nice people from all over...
Nah. This coastal shit is overrated. I'm native SF. People like me are the amenity that all these twats from around the world came to experience. But then they went from loving this subversive bohemian attitude to ultra-mommy-state fascists and have been squeezing my nuts ever since. This supposed 'coastal' attitude is actually small town Americans coming to SF to implement woke ideas they were conditioned into 'learning' in school. SF refugees are not wokesters... don't conflate shitbots who moved to SF and lived here a 'long' time with actual San Franciscans. They are small town locusts who stripped my city clean and are now busy destroying small, tourist- town America.
I'm one of the last people who knows the DEEP secrets of SF. It doesn't matter that they censor me. All the time, I hear my own arguments repeated by strangers on Nextdoor or in neighborhoods. Someone has to keep the fight going here. I loudly lecture in public when out to dinner or hanging in a neighborhood when my friend or acquaintance asks me 'why is it like this in SF?' The word is getting out about the pension pirates and the way the 9th District Court is corrupt and that all political figures in SF depend on blackmail and mutually assured destruction to keep the corrupt city machine moving. It's not the 'word on the street,' it's MY word on the street. Hard to prove unless you live here and see how NPC most office degenerates are. There's rarely an honest, or original idea uttered on the street. Truly, the words of the prophets are written on the subway walls and tenement halls.
The Day Tapes 1969 / 1988 reveal the plan.
Please do write a summary, if you would be so kind.
https://open.substack.com/pub/sagehana/p/the-rockefeller-commission-report?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=b7m4j Sage has revisited this a few times
Thank You. Paul. That works well.
:-)
You'll find similar crises across much of Western Europe, albeit with unique national flavours distinct from the USA.
Oligarchies also control most Western European nations, much to the chagrin of the still occupying military forces of the USA. What an outrage, European billionaires jousting with US overlords, eh?
The inhumanity displayed by the elites can be summed up in one simple question they never, ever answer: 'Just why do you think that you increasing your wealth from £10bn to £20bn has a single benefit to the majority of humankind?'
For them, they're still in the game of Monopoly, still building houses on Park Lane and Mayfair.
It's always dangerous when children's games are framed to end with one person owning everything and everyone else owning nothing.
If you could obtain a 5% annual return on £1bn, then living off the interest of the interest would give you £2.5m a year to live off. Dreadful pittance, eh? Especially if your property were mortgage free and the business portfolio funded the upkeep of the family home. School fees for two: 4%. Cars: 3%. Holidays: 3% (must fly business class, darling!); charity 10%; clubs and entertainment: 5%; private healthcare: 2.5%; gardeners and cleaners: 2.5%. Still leaves 70% for taxes, a nest egg for the children etc etc.
Of course, if you have to spend £10m a year maintaining a private jet; £20m a year of thoroughbred racing outlays; £20m investing in vintage wine; £50m bribing politicians and oligarchs, then £2.5m is absolute penury.
But forgive the 7.49bn humans who don't really have any time for your spoilt indulgences.
But what if we are immortal spirits having a human-body-experience?
:-)
This
Hard to feel optimistic after reading this. So, if we survive the slavery intended for us by the perps of the COVID fraud, we'll have civil war to look forward to. Oh goody, we're all gonna die. (Country Joe and the Fish).
No, they are grasping at straws and taking chances that keep setting them back, losing doubled-down bets. It looks like they have been trying to make civil-war, but the conservatives are too wise to bite.
It seems that all the principled moral stances that used to make me a liberal, now make me a conservative, even with that same little pony-tail I've had for so long.
Just when I figured that I was a Liberal, that name got black-balled. Ditto Leftist. No pony tail for me. I guess I am anonymous, which these days seems to be the safest approach. I am no longer sure what all those labels mean, which is probably 'their" intention. Don't cut your hair!
Nice to know I am not the only one confused by the current labels. I figure if I'm confused, the the labels are meaningless.
We only have the time we have. Sisyphus knew the futility but he kept rolling that rock knowing a trapped body but free mind/spirit. I’m trying to just head in the direction of good dharma with patience for myself and all involved. Chin up, it’s bleak but we have each other.
I'm not sure it is bleak. I'm glad I'm not in "the club".
I'll live and die as a human.
Ok read twice. Yes Turchin, he’s been a feature of my thinking for years particularly around the concept of intra-elite competition- which I believe very much exists and doesn’t clash with CJ Hopkins idea of deviant behaviour within the group. The group as a whole now favour totalitarian systems but members such as Elon and young non-generational wealth holders are somewhat identified with commoners and Putin is identified with Russian ness.
I identify as a dirt-worshipper.
Dear dirt worshipper, I think favouring 'totaliarian systems' is a symptom of desparation as the so called "elites" best laid plans go south even and despite the temporary triumph and respite of the covid episode. What no longer works by persuasion now demands enforcement if control is to be maintained. Consider the hesitancy around introducing new 'pandemics', the clot shot, the WHO machine. They beaver on - what else can they do - in the face of growing mass skepticism and distrust.
I engage soil as a fellow holobiont.
:-)