Traversing Discontinuity
Displaced Persons,
Over Easter weekend I participated in a memorial bike ride and a sad "celebration of life" for a dear friend from college. Much discussed was the "craziness of Trump", which was broadly stated as an opening remark, as if things are otherwise ok with political-economies.
I broached the topic of thermoeconomic analysis, and the implications of a global oil + condensates peak in November 2018, for a financial system based upon exponential growth, and got some sustained attention from the post-ride bicyclists on Saturday, but there were a lot of people at the celebration, and attention spans were a bit shorter... I did often say that I did not vote for Trump, was not a Trump fan, and agreed that one could not take his statements at face value because he would quickly change them if they were trending wrong on social media. However, I said, I model him as a rational actor, with better information than I have, and assume that he is probably also more intelligent than I am, hard as that is for a human to think or say...
Debt has grown exponentially since November 2018, while real economy, 90% correlated with oil production, has been in a bumpy stagnation at best. "Help, I've fallen and can't get back up!"
Global financiers have been accustomed to creating bottlenecks in money-supply, which they control, to manipulate the real world of resources, industry, trade and war, but real-world shortages are overtaking the growing money-supply, and they need a "Great Reset" to regain control of the system through financial means. Some of them want WW-3, particularly if they can strip Russia of resources to use as collateral. However, a big war with China and debt default may have to suffice. Resetting the global monetary system to gold, which does not grow exponentially, makes sense in an economy that cannot grow, but Bitcoin may be even more enticing.
This economic decline is not equally true of every country. The Russian economy, with the most resources per capita is still growing, though the EU and China are much constrained by resource shortages. Pre-negotiations are taking place, to establish opening offers, which remain very unrealistic from the fuel-starved yet pompous EU, while China has her honor to uphold, or the governing elites might lose power if they accept humiliation.
The US, devolving the global-reserve-currency status to some mix of gold, oil and Bitcoin would gain advantage by moving first and decisively, and also has the second most natural-resources per capita.
There are powerful national and international interests at play, not just global finance, this time. Cutting-out global finance would be very good for the #1 and #2 resource countries, Russia and the US, but very bad for London, Brussels and even New York "financial-interests".
Yanis Varoufakis presented his read of the Team Trump strategy to devalue the $US, while maintaining value against other fiat currencies, by devaluing against Gold and Bitcoin, perhaps raising gold valuations high enough to even blow a Bitcoin bubble large enough to pay off US Treasury debt outright, with Treasury holdings. Crypto’s role in Trump’s economic masterplan (with special emphasis on stablecoins) To get a whiff of the answer, take the case of Japanese institutions that hold in excess of $1 trillion of dollars, the result of decades of Japanese net exports to the United States. To drive the dollar down, but avoid strengthening the pretensions to reserve currency status of either the euro or China’s renminbi up, Trump would like to bully Tokyo to dump most of these dollars in the money markets but not convert them into euros or renminbi. What could do the trick? How about convincing, with an element of strongarming, the Japanese to swap their dollars for crypto? That would work, especially if the Federal Reserve dominated the crypto scene. https://www.yanisvaroufakis.eu/2025/03/19/cryptos-role-in-trumps-economic-masterplan-with-special-emphasis-on-stablecoins-unherd/
The Honest Sorcerer, Being Certain About Uncertainty As drilling for (and refining) oil takes up more and more energy per barrel of gasoline, jet and diesel fuel returned year after year, so does the cost imposed on the entire economy continue to mount. Depletion doesn’t mean that we run out of oil or other minerals one day to the next. It manifests in ever increasing energy costs, as the best locations with the highest grade stuff run out one after the other. Replacing these once rich resources with poorer quality, harder-to-reach, faster and faster depleting, increasingly smaller locations is a losing proposition — not just in America, but worldwide. As the energy costs of extracting Earth’s riches continue to rise, and as the returns per barrels and kilowatts invested keep falling, more and more projects will be cancelled. Eventually, natural depletion will become prominent and global oil output will begin to fall. Added on top of this purely geology-driven phenomena is the increased cost of borrowing as central banks continue fighting windmills by raising interest rates. They do this ostensibly to arrest inflation, but in effect all they achieve is the immiseration of the average worker through higher banking costs and increased mortgage payments. This in effect simultaneously reduces demand for oil (as the consumption of goods made and transported by it fall) and increases the cost of drilling replacement wells... ..The International Energy Agency has already cut its 2025 oil demand growth forecast as a result. Major banks also lowered their forecasts of oil prices for the foreseeable future. Again, with a constantly rising energy, material and monetary cost of replacing depleted wells, we have just got a lot closer to a permanent decline in oil production. World crude oil output has already peaked in November, 2018 and at such low prices it looks increasingly unlikely that we will reach that level again...
..This trade madness has thrown a monkey wrench into the system. Sure enough, no responsible company manager would allow investments to happen in a country which could raise or drop tariffs one day to the next, making assumptions needed to start a two to three year undertaking impossible to make.
These tariffs are not the root cause, however, but a sign of extreme desperation in the face of global decline. We are facing a terminal crisis of the oil based economy, and not just in the US. The 1970’s oil shock, gave us a forewarning what to expect should oil production began to decline again (as it did back then). Rising prices. Stagnating economic output. Shortages. This time, however, there is no gold standard to leave behind, no country with a vast resource base and cheap labor left to outsource production into, and no trade left to liberalize... ..Bloomberg goes one step further still, implying that tariffs are in fact a dress-rehearsal for a war with China. A fight which “nobody” wants — except for the entirety of the US congress, the Department of War (ahem, “Defense”), not to mention think tanks founded by rich oligarchs, hoping to earn a fortune on it (1). From this perspective tariffs look like an attempt to simulate the effect of a major war between the two superpowers in preparation for the real one. Other “benefits” include a leverage over allies and large corporations — motivating them to impose their own sanctions on China in return for tariff relief and exemptions — not to mention the fantastic opportunity they provide for insider trading.
Alex Krainer has specifics on the manipulation of the definition of Canadian tar sands as "proven reserves", which allowed the vast leveraged housing bubble to be collateralized, which led to the housing bubble and Global Financial Crisis in 2008. He was trading oil options and following all of the official projections then, but what he actually saw was very different. Gods of finance & gods of war How high-level banking interests determined the most momentous events in our recent history.
A resource poor, export-oriented economy needs resources and markets. China Is In Economic Dire Straits And They're No Longer Able To Hide It https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-economic-dire-straits-and-theyre-no-longer-able-hide-it
Chinese Plastics Factories Face Mass Closure As US Ethane Supply Evaporates https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chinese-plastics-factories-face-mass-closure-us-ethane-disappears
Chinese pride: Pepe Escobar, The Shanghai Spirit - China Will Take No Bullying In all conversations and debates, a constant: no illusions about Trump 2.0’s shifting strategy, and how it should be turned against him, Sun Tzu-style; how China must amass a solid set of bargaining chips; and most of all how, from the beginning, this was always a war of an elite section of the American ruling classes on China. The rest of the world is a sideshow.
So it’s no wonder that in every business dinner, after a matchless gastronomic feast, the conversation soon veered on how China’s strategy will not be about immediate damage control; and how China is already eyeing new links and nodes to deepen its long-term global competitiveness.
It’s an open question whether Trump 2.0 and his team of Sinophobes will manage to prevent the emergence of a Global Majority strategic alliance against the Empire of Chaos.
In Shanghai, and across China, submission is simply not an option. In cultural terms, Trump has managed to antagonize 1.4 billion Chinese, simultaneously, by treating the civilization-state without respect. The one thing that irks Chinese the most is mistreatment (see, for instance, the “century of humiliation”). https://sputnikglobe.com/20250421/pepe-escobar-the-shanghai-spirit-china-will-take-no-bullying--1121902677.html
In a hole and digging: "China Will Never Accept It": Beijing Warns Countries Against Trade Deal With Trump At China's Expense https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-will-never-accept-it-beijing-warns-countries-against-trade-deal-trump-chinas-expense
Xi has to deliver for China or he dare not meet: Trump wants direct talks with Xi – Politico The US president is reportedly not interested in informal diplomatic contact with China on trade https://swentr.site/news/616077-trump-wants-talks-xi/
Gobbledygook may mean that critical-AI-mass must be reached to control human populations, no matter how much electricity it takes out of the real economy. AI Power Demand Is Remaking Our Energy Ecosystem, While Painting A Target On Its Own Back The energy transition and AI revolution are fundamentally reshaping our relationship with electricity from the demand and supply sides simultaneously.
Ambitious and novel energy projects, from Stargate to Southern Company’s new Vogtle nuclear plant to Google’s combined data center and solar energy industrial parks are helping advance this vision.
If we make the right choices now—bringing security considerations into our infrastructure investments and enlisting the right partners in that cause—we can build an energy system that is not just cleaner and more abundant, but fundamentally more defensible than what came before. https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/ai-power-demand-remaking-our-energy-ecosystem-while-painting-target-its-own-back
She and her family were spot-bombed at home by Israel after she made a good documentary. Caitlin Johnstone, "I Want A Death That The World Will Hear" — Journalist Assassinated By Israel For Telling The Truth Israel assassinated a photojournalist in Gaza in an airstrike targeting her family’s home on Wednesday, the day after it was announced that a documentary she appears in would premier in Cannes next month.
Her name was Fatima Hassouna. Nine members of her family were also reportedly killed in the bombing. She was going to get married in a few days.
The documentary is titled Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, and it’s about Israel’s crimes in Gaza.
With Eye on Iran, US Sends Bunker-Busting Bombs to Israel
Nine shipments of US munitions capable of hitting underground facilities arrived in Israel last week. https://news.antiwar.com/2025/04/20/with-eye-on-iran-us-sends-bunker-busting-bombs-to-israel/
Houthis Claim Attacks On Two US Aircraft Carrier Groups Off Yemen https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/houthis-claim-attacks-two-us-aircraft-carrier-groups-yemen
Gilbert Doctorow, President Putin’s 30-hour Easter cease-fire As of now, the Russians have reported that the Ukrainians violated the cease-fire hundreds of times over the past night, sending drones and artillery shells their way. Of course, for their part, Kiev was already last night denouncing alleged Russian violations. And yet the tally is not exactly equal. The major Western media were obliged to report Vladimir Putin’s speech to the armed forces yesterday ordering the cease fire, and he looked very earnest on screen. By contrast, Volodymir Zelensky’s taped response looked scrappy and ill-prepared. Finally, I wish to add here a further consideration on the seemingly poor judgment of Team Trump in advancing the Kellogg solution as the end game to the war. Surely, they understood as I do that this solution would be unacceptable to both warring parties. Accordingly, it is entirely possible, if not likely that Trump chose it precisely in order to provide himself with a justification before his opponents in the States and abroad for washing his hands of Ukraine when the parties reject it. https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2025/04/20/president-putins-30-hour-easter-cease-fire/
Simplicius has more information. Both sides retrieved bodies from battlefields: Easter Ceasefire Brings Brief Glimmer of Humanity Amidst the Chaos
Putin and Trump both dislike "Eurofascism" (bankers?): Opposition to ‘Eurofascism’ driving rapprochement with US – Russian spy agency Western Europe is predisposed to tyranny and “global conflicts,” Moscow’s Foreign Intelligence Service says https://swentr.site/russia/616011-svr-eurofascism-france-britain/
Actually? European Union bans commemorating the defeat of Nazi Germany The European Union is warning European leaders not to attend the 80th anniversary of Victory Day in Moscow on May 9.
Ostensibly, the rationale for such a ban is that Russia is allegedly waging a war against Ukraine and threatening the rest of Europe, according to the EU. That’s one way of seeing it.
Another way of seeing the matter is that the conflict in Ukraine is a proxy war sponsored by the EU and NATO to defeat Russia, eight decades after Nazi Germany failed to do it. https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/04/18/european-union-bans-commemorating-defeat-of-nazi-germany/
Putin reacts to EU threats over Victory Day
The Russian leader has praised the bravery of European leaders who defy Brussels to visit Moscow for the May 9 celebration https://swentr.site/russia/616076-putin-reacts-eu-pushback/
Trump hopeful for Russia-Ukraine peace deal ‘this week’ Moscow and Kiev have accused each other of violating an Easter truce https://swentr.site/russia/616036-hopefully-russia-ukraine-peace-trump/
They can geolocate such images. where was he? Shooting Russians? Congressman Visits Ukraine Frontlines, Filmed Firing Heavy Weapon https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/congressman-visits-ukraine-frontlines-filmed-firing-heavy-weapon
Republican war-poseur U.S. Congressman Backtracks On Social Media Post Claiming He Fired Weapons At Nuclear-Armed Russia
“It was my profound honor to deliver a very ‘personal’ message to Vladimir Putin today, from the front lines of the war near the Russian border, on behalf of our PA-1 community. The only permissible details to share are that ‘the message was delivered on target,’” the post reads.
The “personal” message was scrawled on one or more pictured artillery shells. It said, “To: Putin From PA-1 [Fitzpatrick’s district near Philadelphia] #PeaceThroughStrength.”
Ostensibly taken near the Russian border, the video shows Fitzpatrick firing two projectiles. “The message was delivered on target,” but the congressman said could not give any more details. https://thefederalist.com/2025/04/21/u-s-congressman-backtracks-on-social-media-post-claiming-he-fired-weapons-at-nuclear-armed-russia/
Gilbert Doctorow, Russian Vessels on the Line: Moscow Threatens Consequences for Baltic Provocations!
Aside from the official protests and warnings from the Russian Ministry of Affairs spokeswoman Zakharova that the video exhibits, the Russian talk shows have been devoting attention to the Estonian provocations. Last night’s Solovyov program gave the subject ample time, with the host suggesting that Russia is ready to send military vessels to accompany its commercial ships through the Baltic waters and is ready not only to sink whatever navy Estonia thinks it has, but to level the country to the ground.
We can assume that the authorities in Tallinn are watching these Russian shows and are unlikely to take actions that would precipitate the Russian response that has been sketched for them.
I close this brief note with one other observation from last night’s Solovyov show, this time from the retired colonel who regularly appears as panelist. He remarked that Merz does not know what he is talking about, since the Taurus, while a good missile, is utterly unsuited for a mission of destroying a bridge. Its main use is for destroying underground bunkers and the like. Moreover, the Ukrainians will require some period of time to put any Taurus missiles to use. It can be carried by the French fighter jets that are on promise, by the Eurofighters which are not yet on delivery schedule to Kiev, but not by the F-16s which they recently received. Surely a solution will be found to enable use of the Taurus, but not at once. Or to put it more broadly: not in time to save the necks of the floundering Ukrainian armed forces now under strong pressure from a Russian offensive. https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2025/04/21/russian-vessels-on-the-line-moscow-threatens-consequences-for-baltic-provocations-tn-world/
Trump plans new envoy trip to Russia – CNN
Steve Witkoff, who has already met with President Putin three times this year, has reportedly been tasked with getting Moscow to agree to a Ukraine peace framework https://swentr.site/news/616006-cnn-witkoff-another-meeting-russians-ukraine-peace/
The non-NATO country could be India. Ukraine would "recognize" that Russia holds the land it holds, but would call it "Ukraine". Who would sign for Ukraine? New York Post learns details of ceasefire monitoring plan within Trump's peace initiative Details: Although the details of the peace deal have not yet been determined, a senior administration official told the news outlet that they could include the deployment of European forces to Ukraine if a ceasefire is reached. "The hard part is what does a security force look like – we're calling that a ‘resiliency force’," the official said.
"The resiliency force is part of the security guarantees that the Ukrainians want and we hope they get," he added.
A separate force to monitor the ceasefire is also being discussed. It would be a joint commission of Russians, Ukrainians, and a third non-NATO country. The mission would monitor the front line to ensure that both sides lay down their arms. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/04/22/7508622/
Putin Offers To Halt Fighting Along Current Front Lines In Ukraine President Vladimir Putin has offered to halt his invasion of Ukraine across the current front line as part of ongoing efforts to work with US President Donald Trump toward reaching a permanent peace deal. This reportedly happened during ongoing dialogue with Trump's top envoys.
This is according to several sources which spoke to Financial Times, which wrote further in a Tuesday report,"The proposal is the first formal indication Putin has given since the war’s early months three years ago that Russia could step back from its maximalist demands to end the invasion."
"The Russian president told Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy, during a meeting in St Petersburg earlier this month that Moscow could relinquish its claims to areas of four partly occupied Ukrainian regions that remain under Kyiv’s control, three of the people said". https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putin-offers-freeze-ukraine-invasion-along-current-front-line-report
Tuesday afternoon at 3:30 PM Moscow time: Massive 'Mystery Explosions' Rock Ammo Depot Outside Moscow, Resulting In Mushroom Cloud https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/massive-mystery-explosions-rock-ammo-depot-outside-moscow-resulting-mushroom-cloud
Former State Department Official Warns Of Deep State's 'Undeclared Second Cold War' On Populism Benz is calling for the wholesale declassification of the intelligence communities efforts to suppress populism, along with congressional investigations and hearings.
“The point is, is any act of the people that undermines elements of their control is categorized as a threat to democracy and subjected to the same apparatus that we constructed during the war on communism. And I believe this story can really only be fully told through declassifications and hearings that are similar to the church committee hearing,” Benz said. “And that framework for understanding nationalism and populism, as opposed to socialism and communism in the 1960s and 70s, has to run through every element of control by the IC that was weaponized at home.”
Since departing the State Department, Benz has led efforts to expose government, especially intelligence community, involvement in censoring free speech on social media. A key focus was the Global Engagement Center (GEC), originally established in 2007 as the Counterterrorism Communication Center to combat propaganda from groups like Al-Qaeda. Rebranded as the GEC in 2016 under President Obama, it shifted to countering foreign disinformation. Despite its foreign focus, the GEC faced accusations in legal cases for participating in the Election Integrity Partnership (EIP), which flagged election-related disinformation on social media. https://www.zerohedge.com/political/former-state-department-official-warns-deep-states-undeclared-second-cold-war-against
'Building 7 Controlled Demolition?': Republican Senator Plans Shock 9/11 Hearings, Says 'My Eyes Have Been Opened' Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) is raising eyebrows after revealing on Benny Johnson’s conservative podcast that he’s pushing for a congressional hearing to examine the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the Twin Towers.
Johnson, who serves on the the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, raised questions about the World Trade Center Building 7’s collapse, saying the documentary film, Calling Out Bravo 7 has sparked “an awful lot of questions.” https://www.zerohedge.com/political/building-7-controlled-demolition-republican-senator-plans-shock-911-hearings-says-my-eyes
From Kafka's Germany: Reiner Fuellmich Update: Closing Arguments From Katja Woermer, "...At Her Most Passionate And Eloquent.
Make America Healthy Again campaign urges elimination of seed oils for a healthy lifestyle (The cholesterol hypothesis mainly sells statins.) Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and other like-minded researchers, scientists, and physicians are especially speaking out to explain why “seed oils” – an ingredient in most processed foods – are an obstacle to health.
In a Fox News interview in September (clip provided by the X account of A Midwestern Doctor), Kennedy explained that guidelines concerning what should be in the American diet have largely been dictated by government agencies that are now subservient to the industries they are supposed to regulate...
..Amerling provided some historical background on the seed oil diet, based on Teicholz’s book.
“It was all sold on a lie that saturated fat raises cholesterol and that cholesterol causes heart disease,” he explained.
The “diet-heart hypothesis” was created by researcher Ancel Keys, and “it’s been roundly disproven,” Amerling said. “It was disproven even by Ancel’s own fake studies.”
Amerling observed that it was the introduction of international consumer giant Procter & Gamble into the health market that popularized Keys’ claims.
“Procter & Gamble essentially created the American Heart Association, which hired Keys to be their nutritionist,” he said. “They pushed through these dietary guidelines, through the McGovern commission, and with all these big food interests, because these seed oils were immensely profitable compared to healthier fats like tallow and lard, and even coconut oil, butter – all these things are much more expensive, with less profit margin.”
“The seed oils have a huge profit margin, and they ended up going into every single processed food,” Amerling asserted, challenging anyone who can find a supermarket tortilla chip that is not made with canola oil or some sort of seed oil. https://catholicvote.org/make-america-healthy-again-campaign-urges-elimination-of-seed-oils-for-a-healthy-lifestyle/
Everyone who looked at even their publicly released data "knew": Steve Kirsch, Analysis of the IsraeLeak video from 2 years ago. The tape shows "they knew" but said nothing to the public.Two years ago, Israeli Ministry of Health met with researchers about vaccine adverse events and talked about how to cover it up. Transcript now available.
True double blind tests on children… How many percent more likely are they to die after vaccination? 5%, 20%… ? Not even close. It’s 8200%! "Once the envelope was opened, and I'm sure the ONS thought they'd have a nice 10% benefit for getting the jabs, but they had to open the envelope, they had to see what it said, and they saw what was to be found in February of 2022. And in February through May of 2022, there was some initial information that showed there was a 52 times likelihood of passing away, more so if you were Vaxxed. That was the information in February of 22. But by the time they reviewed another three or four months worth and gave the final answer was actually 8200% more likely to die in the six months following a COVID-19 triple vaccination than children who did not get the vaccine at all." Dr. Chris Shoemaker | March 7th 2025 | Edmonton, Alberta https://x.com/toobaffled/status/1912985376010223822
Jessica Rose Ph.D. Aluminum exposure and autism prevalence: An addendum to my previous article based on your amazing comments
A Midwestern Doctor, Why Do Vaccines Cause Autism? Past discoveries that can help us understand the current wave of neurological injuries and the silence surrounding them
Young Adults Continue to Produce Spike Protein One Year After Receiving COVID Vaccine
A peer-reviewed study published last week in Immunity, Inflammation and Disease adds to the growing scientific evidence that mRNA COVID-19 vaccines can cause the body to continue producing the spike protein much longer than expected, leading to immune system dysregulation. https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/young-adults-produce-spike-protein-one-year-after-receiving-covid-vaccine/
CDC ACIP Set to Recommend More mRNA Shots This Year — Despite Millions of American Casualties
Now hiding behind a “risk-based” framework,ACIP still plans to push deadly COVID-19 mRNA injections on daycare children, healthcare workers, and the elderly — while ignoring grave safety signals.
‘Genes Do Not Cause Epidemics’: Kennedy Lambastes Media for Denying Autism Epidemic, Vows to Research Environmental Triggers
HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. today called out the National Institutes of Health for spending 10 to 20 times more on research into genetic causes of autism than environmental ones.He said HHS will make grants available to university scientists and others to research the environmental causes of autism. https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/hhs-secretary-kennedy-autism-research-environmental-causes/
Sasha Latypova, PREP Act Brief: "License to Kill" must be repealed. A collection of articles for ease of educating your friends, family, doctors and legislators. Please sign the petition to repeal the PREP Act linked in the post.
Texas Appeals Ruling in Lawsuit Against Pfizer, Challenges PREP Act Immunity Shield
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton on Wednesday filed a motion in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit, arguing that Texas consumer laws are not preempted by the federal liability shield granted to COVID-19 vaccine makers under the federal PREP Act. https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/texas-appeals-ruling-pfizer-challenges-prep-act-immunity-shield/
Meryl Nass MD, Massive NIH funding cut and reorganization proposed in leaked documents
Supporting Normalcy (picturing the joy of a first set of wheels)
What a tour de force! Awesome, Sir!
A.I. Assimilation
https://bibledecode.substack.com/p/ai-assimilation-q-and-a-interview
People's experience after being Jabbed with the NEURAL LACE MrnA BCI.