Inevitable And Unforeseen
Making Predictions,
Surplus Energy Economics, The Arc Of Inevitability: AGENCY, VISIBILITY & CHAINED CAUSALITY
Whenever some economic crisis or challenge arises, finance ministers, central bankers and officials are expected to respond, choosing appropriate policies from a wide selection of possibilities.
We might, of course, later conclude that these choices were mistaken. Decision-makers are also open to accusations of favouring some interest-groups over others.
But the existence of agency itself – of the ability to make largely unfettered policy choices – is seldom called into question.
There are, though, plenty of reasons to wonder about how much agency actually exists, and a strong possibility that the economy follows its own “arc of inevitability”.
If this turned out to be the case, it would overturn a whole series of assumptions about the art of the possible, and provide unsuspected visibility about the future course of events.
Instead of demanding economic ‘fixes’ from governments, we – and they – could start planning on the basis of a very largely foreseeable trajectory of economic and financial development... ..We cannot control material systems in the same way that we can control money. We can loan money into existence through the banking system, and central bankers can conjure it, ex nihilo, out of the ether. But we cannot similarly create material resources such as energy, minerals, productive agricultural land and water.
As agency is re-thought in a downwards direction, so the importance of material systems outside our control will gain ever greater significance in our interpretations.
This opens up the very real possibility that economic trends and outcomes are determined by a material sequence of causation which we have little or no ability to influence.
My term for this is the arc of inevitability.
If this is indeed the case, it’s unreasonable to expect leadership to steer the economy in desired directions. If, for example, an arc of inevitability is pushing British material prosperity in a downwards direction, neither chancellor (finance minister) Rachel Reeves – nor anybody else – can do anything much about it.
There is, moreover, a compensatory process involved here. What we lose in agency, we gain in predictability. We can cease asking ourselves which leadership contenders have the best plans for changing directions, and start examining the forward implications of a knowable trajectory.
The basic premise of the arc of inevitability is that each event contains, within itself, the causation of the next trend or occurrence. On this basis, we can visualize outcomes, not as discrete, self-contained happenings, but as beads strung along a central thread of tendency. https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2025/02/10/299-the-arc-of-inevitability/
Wind-powered electrical generation is not working out for the UK economy. UK to Make Building Nuclear Easier https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/UK-to-Make-Building-Nuclear-Easier.html
Profits decrease by the maintenance costs of roads, bridges, sewers and electrical lines, so the maintenance is not done. Averting Collapse Is No Longer Profitable How the past 75 years of infrastructure development has created a massive predicament for industrial nations and what comes next
Steel is a marker for industrial economic output. Peak Steel Global steel production has peaked in 2021 and it's stagnating ever since. Is this just another minor hiccup or an ominous sign of a much bigger crisis in the making?
More Bang for those Bucks? Trump: DOGE To Analyze Pentagon Spending After 7th Failed Audit https://www.zerohedge.com/political/doge-analyze-pentagon-spending-after-7th-failed-audit
USAID is stripped of its lease and staffers turned away from DC headquarters https://www.arabnews.com/node/2589747/world
Google Calendar Removes Pride, Black History Month, Other DEI Dates https://www.zerohedge.com/political/culture-shift-google-calendar-removes-pride-black-history-month-other-dei-dates
Following the Money: How Did Samantha Power More Than Triple Her Millions While Working for USAID? https://sputnikglobe.com/20250210/following-the-money-how-did-samantha-power-more-than-triple-her-millions-while-working-for-usaid-1121553113.html
DOGE Investigating Feds Whose Net Worths Have Exploded After Samantha Power Bombshell https://www.zerohedge.com/political/doge-investigating-feds-whose-net-worths-have-exploded-after-samantha-power-bombshell
Microsoft Drops USAID-Funded NewsGuard After Ted Cruz Starts Digging https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/microsoft-drops-usaid-funded-newsguard-after-ted-cruz-starts-digging
US-funded ‘social network’ attacking pesticide critics shuts down after Guardian investigation] v-Fluence halts operations after widespread backlash over private portal profiling environmental health advocates v-Fluence, which also had the former agrochemical firm Monsanto as a client, secured some funding from the US government as part of a contract with a third party. Public spending records show the US Agency for International Development (USAid) contracted with a separate non-governmental organization that manages a government initiative to promote GM crops in African and Asian countries. That organization, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), then paid v-Fluence a little more than $400,000 from roughly 2013 through 2019 for services that included counteracting critics of “modern agriculture approaches” in Africa and Asia. The “private social network portal” set up by v-Fluence was part of the contract, and was supposed to provide, among other things, “tactical support” for efforts to gain acceptance for the GM crops. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/10/v-fluence-pesticide-critics
"We are the Resistance" Sounds Incredibly Stupid When You’re Making Demands for the CIA
DOGE is really exposing just how ridiculous the progressive claim to ‘fight the power’ really is.
Homeland Security Secretary Noem says DOGE team has access to agency data https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/09/politics/noem-homeland-security-doge-musk-cnntv/index.html
Senate votes to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as top U.S. intelligence official The 52-48 vote was largely along party lines, with nearly all Republicans present voting in favor of Gabbard. Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., the former longtime GOP leader who has clashed with Trump, was the only Republican who joined all Democrats in voting against her. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/senate-votes-confirm-tulsi-gabbard-top-us-intelligence-official-rcna191587
Kennedy One Step Closer to Confirmation as Health Secretary After Senate Vote
The Senate voted along party lines to advance the nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for health secretary to the floor for a final vote, likely Thursday. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/12/us/rfk-jr-senate-vote-hhs.html
What is (or might be) in a name? Today's name: "Doge"
Dogecoin was originally created as a joke in late 2013 by Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer. Both Billy and Jackson thought that cryptocurrency was being taken far too seriously and wasn’t much fun. Jackson created the Dogecoin.com website and would have been, for a while, the public face of Dogecoin, while Billy worked as a solo developer on the first 4 releases. https://dogecoin.com/dogepedia/articles/history-of-dogecoin/
Frances Leader: DOGE COIN HAS SOME INTERESTING HISTORY! The Doge is the senior member of the Venetian Black Nobility - an exceedingly powerful individual who is voted into office by representatives of the world criminal syndicates. The office of Doge dates back to medieval times!! Once Head of State of Byzantine origin whose military features were already present in the title – doge derives from the Latin dux, military commander –, the doge became in Venice the official representative of the Serenissima in the eyes of the world.
“Monsignor the Doge”, as he was called in public documents, was the symbol and incarnation of Venetian power, the protagonist of solemn public ceremonies, receptions and feasts. His real power, however, was limited and controlled by the Venetian merchant aristocracy, while his person was under the constant supervision of the ducal councillors because, despite being the ‘Most Serene Prince’, he was and remained the first servant of the Republic, to all intents and purposes.
Resorting to a perfect and straightforward synthesis, the doge was called Princeps in solemnitatibus, in curia senator, in urbe captivus, extra urbe reus in Latin, which translates to: Prince in solemnities, senator in the senate, prisoner within the city, guilty outside the city.
Catherine Austin Fitts argues that Trump & Musk are instituting tyrannical digital technocracy.: Trump Administration: Digital Control Grid Coming Together at High Speed
Celia Farber, DOGE Says It Plans To Audit The "Federal Reserve." If You Listen To This Clip, You Will Learn Shocking Facts and Hear Insane Quotations About The FR, Our Chief Despot Outside Human Form. It's a Short Clip. Did You Know They Had Said These Things? I Did Not
Sen. Mike Lee floats former Rep. Ron Paul for Federal Reserve chairman, Musk says 'amazing' idea
Musk wrote on X it would be a 'good idea' if DOGE allowed former GOP Rep. Ron Paul run a 'Federal Reserve audit team' https://justthenews.com/government/white-house/sen-mike-lee-floats-former-rep-ron-paul-federal-reserve-chairman-musk-says
Lots of details here: Bigger Than USAID Scandal? Clinton Probe to Expose Gates, Soros and Epstein Links https://sputnikglobe.com/20250211/bigger-than-usaid-scandal-clinton-probe-to-expose-gates-soros-and-epstein-links-1121554592.html
Celia Farber: CIA's Internal Guidelines For Assassinations: How To Murder People And Make It Look Like Accident, Complete With Charts Mike Benz Hints At Major Disclosure Today and Hopes He Does Not Get Killed
Trump 'Committed To Buying & Owning Gaza' As Poll Shows Little Support Among US Public “I’m committed to buying and owning Gaza. As far as us rebuilding it, we may give it to other states in the Middle East to build sections of it,” Trump told the press pool while flying to the Super Bowl in New Orleans.
"But we’re committed to owning it, taking it, and making sure that Hamas doesn’t move back. There’s nothing to move back into. The place is a demolition site." https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-committed-buying-owning-gaza-poll-shows-little-support-among-us-public
Trump threatens to cut aid for Egypt, Jordan over controversial Gaza plan
Trump says he would "conceivably" withhold aid to Jordan and Egypt if both countries refuse to take in ethnically cleansed Palestinians. https://www.trtworld.com/us-and-canada/trump-threatens-to-cut-aid-for-egypt-jordan-over-controversial-gaza-plan-18263661
Jordan pledges to take in sick Palestinian children as Trump backpedals on aid threat King Abdullah II of Jordan pledged to take in 2,000 sick Palestinian children from the Gaza Strip on Tuesday amid pressure from President Trump for his country to take in Palestinians from the enclave. https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5138756-jordan-children-trump-aid-backpedal/
Trump rules out Palestinian right of return under his plan for Gaza https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20250210-trump-rules-out-palestinian-right-of-return-under-his-plan-for-gaza/
The Genocide is not over: Hold Israel accountable under the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child
The Palestine-Global Mental Health Network calls on global leaders to protect Palestinian children by cutting off the military, political, financial, and diplomatic support that sustains Israel’s systematic human rights abuses. https://mondoweiss.net/2025/02/the-genocide-is-not-over-hold-israel-accountable-under-the-un-convention-on-the-rights-of-the-child/
Israel committed 110 violations against Palestinian press in January, killed 7 journalists https://www.yenisafak.com/en/news/israel-committed-110-violations-against-palestinian-press-in-january-killed-7-journalists-report-3698279
Hamas accuses Israel of ceasefire violations, says it will delay next hostage release “This includes delays in allowing displaced Palestinians to return to northern Gaza, targeting them with airstrikes and gunfire across various areas of the Strip, and failing to facilitate the entry of humanitarian aid as agreed.”
Senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri told Reuters on Tuesday that Trump must remember that the only way to bring home Israeli prisoners is to respect the ceasefire. https://www.arabnews.com/node/2589710/middle-east
Caitlin Johnstone, Israel Admits It Violated The Ceasefire And Hamas Did Not
Honest journalist Richard Medhurst is arrested in Switzerland, and everything is confiscated. Civil Rights Are Being Destroyed Throughout The West In Service Of Israel
He's not actually holding Israel back, is he? Trump threatens to ‘let hell break out’ in Gaza US President Donald Trump has issued an ultimatum to Hamas, demanding the release of all remaining Israeli hostages held in Gaza by midday Saturday, and warning that failure to comply would result in “all hell” breaking out.
On Monday, Hamas threatened to halt the release of additional hostages, accusing Israel of violating the terms of the fragile ceasefire agreement by preventing displaced Palestinians from returning to northern Gaza, restricting the delivery of humanitarian aid, and delaying negotiations for the second phase of the deal. https://swentr.site/news/612488-trump-gaza-hell-break-out/
Israel Backs Trump's Unleash Hell Plan For Gaza If Hostages Aren't Freed By Saturday https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israel-backs-trumps-unleash-hell-plan-gaza-if-hostages-arent-freed-saturday
The United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) said in a statement on Monday that the number of Palestinians Israel has displaced in the occupied West Bank since the beginning of its ongoing offensive has reached 40,000.
Dubbed “Operation Iron Wall,” the ongoing Israeli military invasion overtook the northern West Bank in mid-January, leading to the forcible displacement of thousands of residents. https://mondoweiss.net/2025/02/israel-has-displaced-40000-palestinians-in-the-west-bank-unrwa-says/
Israeli army expands shooting orders for soldiers to kill Palestinians in West Bank: Report
Soldiers attribute high Palestinian death toll to expanded orders to shoot Palestinians in West Bank, army denies any change https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/israeli-army-expands-shooting-orders-for-soldiers-to-kill-palestinians-in-west-bank-report/3477368
Erdogan wants rebuilding contracts. Financial cost of Israel's destruction of Gaza estimated at $100B: Turkish president 'From the economy to diplomacy, from trade to security, we need a new approach and a new global order to solve problems,' says Recep Tayyip Erdogan https://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkiye/financial-cost-of-israels-destruction-of-gaza-estimated-at-100b-turkish-president/3477355
Most of the world says this, and does... Israel must end its occupation of Palestinian lands, compensate for damage it caused: Turkish president
Establishment of independent, sovereign and geographically integrated State of Palestine based on 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital is 'essential,' says Recep Tayyip Erdogan https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/israel-must-end-its-occupation-of-palestinian-lands-compensate-for-damage-it-caused-turkish-president/3478092
"Greater Israel": The next Israel-Hezbollah war is now unavoidable – and it will be worse Netanyahu has made it clear he wants to redraw the region’s map, and the IDF’s refusal to withdraw backs up that intent. If Israel chooses to stay inside Lebanese territory, for whatever reason, it will only be a matter of time before action is taken. The next round will also likely be much more bloody, and the death toll will make the conflict last year seem relatively insignificant in comparison. This may not happen in the immediate future and could even take over a year, but the conflict is far from over and that is because there isn’t really a ceasefire in effect as of now.
On November 27, Israel made a point of not only violating it from the first moments and later advancing further into southern Lebanon, it committed hundreds of violations of the ceasefire. Israel has made it very clear that the new reality is that it has full freedom of action and can remain inside pockets of southern Lebanon for as long as it chooses. Therefore, there will have to be a war to ensure that a real ceasefire is reached and Lebanese territory will not be open season for the Israeli military to bomb, shoot at, and kidnap civilians.
Netanyahu is now bragging about changing the map of the surrounding region, while his new army chief of staff, Eyal Zamir, recently declared “2025 will continue to be a year of combat.” Israel is acting aggressively, expanding its borders, and does not appear to be backing down from its warmongering with Iran, which will lead to even greater chaos. https://www.rt.com/news/612465-war-between-israel-lebanon-inevitable/
Gilbert Doctorow, Waiting for the Munich Security Conference to Open: What ‘peace plan’ is Team Trump bringing? All of the optimism coming from the Trump camp that it holds the high cards in relations with Russia flies in the face of the statements made yesterday afternoon by Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov that relations with the USA “are at the breaking point.” The war will end, said Ryabkov, only when the conditions set down by Vladimir Putin in June 2023 are satisfied. These conditions include the withdrawal of all Ukrainian military forces from the 4 Eastern Ukrainian regions that have been formally integrated into the Russian Federation, disavowal by Kiev on its hopes to enter the NATO alliance together with acceptance of neutral status without the presence of any foreign military personnel or installations on its territory. Let us remember that Ryabkov is the same official who announced in December 2021 Russia’s ultimatum to the USA calling for return of NATO to its borders of 1997, that is to say, before the multiple expansion waves that took in the former Warsaw Pact countries and the Baltic States. Yesterday, Ryabkov also said that there are no prospects presently for successful discussions with the United States about limitations on medium range ground-based missiles or other items on the agenda in regulating strategic stability. https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2025/02/11/waiting-for-the-munich-security-conference-to-open-what-peace-plan-is-team-trump-bringing/
Russia treated US ‘very nicely’ – Trump
The president has said he hopes the release of an American national will mark the “beginning of a relationship” to end the Ukraine conflict Fogel also expressed gratitude, calling Putin “very generous” and “statesman-like” in allowing him to return home after spending more than three years in prison on drug trafficking charges.
At the time of his arrest Fogel was a teacher at an elite Anglo-American school in Moscow, but he had previously worked at the US Embassy in Russia. He lost his diplomatic immunity in May 2021. In August of that year, he was detained at Sheremetyevo Airport in Moscow after the authorities found marijuana and hashish oil in his possession. He was later sentenced to 14 years in prison. https://swentr.site/russia/612542-russia-fogel-treated-nicely-trump/
Russian Crypto Kingpin Freed By US In Marc Fogel Swap "Vinnik operated BTC-e, once one of the world's largest cryptocurrency exchanges. He was arrested in 2017 and detained at Washington's request on suspicion of laundering $4 billion through the exchange," Reuters has detailed. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russian-crypto-kingpin-freed-us-marc-fogel-swap
The transaction: Vice President JD Vance to meet with President Zelenskyy in Germany this week
President Donald Trump may also meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy he told reporters on 7 Feb.Vice President JD Vance will meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Munich Security Conference (MSC) this week, CBS News reported on 9 February. The 61st MSC, an annual international security policy conference, will take place in Munich, Germany, from 14-16 February 2025. https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/02/10/vice-president-jd-vance-to-meet-with-president-zelenskyy-in-germany-this-week/
Moldovan gas-generated-electricity returns: Transnistrian head confirms gas supplies to the republic with Russian support https://eu.eot.su/2025/02/10/transnistrian-head-confirms-gas-supplies-to-the-republic-with-russian-support/
Those metal deposits are difficult & expensive to extract and half-Russian now. Trump wants Ukraine to pay back $500 billion The US president has reiterated his demand for rare-earth minerals to guarantee a return on American investments https://swentr.site/russia/612486-trump-ukraine-billions-rare-earth/
Trump to send Treasury secretary to Kiev
Scott Bessent could visit Ukraine as soon as this week, reportedly for talks on a potential deal for rare-earth minerals https://swentr.site/news/612534-us-treasury-secretary-ukraine/
Ukraine selling US weapons to Mexican drug cartels – Tucker Carlson
Kiev resells up to half of its Western military aid on international black markets, the American journalist has claimed https://swentr.site/news/612485-ukraine-resell-us-weapons/
Russian war news: Lyudmila's mother must have sobbed with pride: Nurse saves soldier’s life by shielding him during strike using cluster munitions Corporal Lyudmila Bolilaya demonstrated composure and self-sacrifice by continuing to provide emergency medical care to the wounded under enemy fire, the Russian Defense Ministry stated on February 9.
The medical officer of a motorized rifle unit, Corporal Lyudmila Bolilaya, was tasked with providing emergency and routine medical care to military personnel, as well as assisting civilians. During combat operations, Ukrainian militants launched a rocket-artillery strike using cluster munitions. The personnel of the unit conducting fortification work came under attack.
Corporal Bolilaya, who was at the command post, ran outside, quickly assessed the situation, and began preparing the wounded for evacuation while providing emergency medical care. The Ukrainian side continued attack, but the nurse remained to assist a severely wounded soldier.
“Shielding him with her body, she took all the shrapnel and fragments upon herself,” the Russian Defense Ministry noted.
The nurse, who sustained multiple injuries, was transported to a field hospital. https://eu.eot.su/2025/02/09/nurse-saves-soldiers-life-by-shielding-him-during-strike-using-cluster-munitions/
Very strange turn: French far-left leader Mélenchon openly calls for Great Replacement in shock speech: “We are destined to be a Creole nation and so much the better” https://rmx.news/article/french-far-left-leader-melenchon-openly-calls-for-great-replacement-in-shock-speech/
Decades-Long Chinese Influence In Panama Begins To Unravel About 10 years ago, Louis Sola’s family maritime business was given a concession to build a marina and cruise port on Amador, a causeway located at the Pacific entrance to the Panama Canal... ..Panama then rescinded the concession on the land where the Sola family had planned to spend $30 million on a cruise port.
Instead, Panama nationalized the project, gave a concession to a Chinese company, and paid it $300 million to build the cruise port.
Additionally, the land that would have been used to build a marina was designated as an embassy of the People’s Republic of China.
Eventually, the Solas got the land back, and U.S. and domestic pressure ended the Chinese regime’s plans of building an embassy at Amador.
In the most recent blow to China, Panama’s president announced on Feb. 2 that it will not renew its Belt and Road agreement with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)—a significant win for President Donald Trump’s pressure campaign. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/decades-long-chinese-influence-panama-begins-unravel
Probably just overlooked for 60 years; nothing important: FBI Finds 'Secret JFK Assassination Records' https://www.zerohedge.com/political/look-deluded-squirrel-fbi-finds-secret-jfk-assassination-records
Religious exemption denied: JD Vance’s 12-year-old relative denied heart transplant because she is unvaccinated A 12-year-old Indiana girl who is related to Vice President JD Vance has been barred from a spot on a heart transplant list because she’s not been vaccinated against COVID-19 and the flu, according to her parents.
Adaline Deal, a distant relative of the VP by marriage through his half-siblings, was born with two rare heart conditions that her family knew would one day require a transplant, her mother Janeen Deal told The Cincinnati Enquirer.
Adaline — who was adopted from China when she was 4 — was treated at Cincinnati Children’s Hospital for nearly 10 years, and her parents hoped she would get the transplant there. https://nypost.com/2025/02/12/us-news/jd-vances-12-year-old-relative-denied-heart-transplant-because-she-is-unvaccinated/
How RFK Jr. could revive a dormant task force to scrutinize vaccine safety https://www.statnews.com/2025/02/11/rfk-jr-trump-health-secretary-could-revive-task-force-vaccine-safety/
SIDS: Maybe Babies Don't Just Suddenly Die. Maybe It's Vaccines That Are Killing Them.
Meryl Nass MD, Vaccine Safety. Don't trust the WHO to get this right. Italian scientists show why using the WHO's algorithm to identify vaccine causality is a very bad idea: Many countries, including Italy, follow WHO guidelines on assigning vaccine causality for an injury. This must change.
Fixing Scientific Research Publication: Trump nominees, COVID dissenters launch science journal to restore 'open scientific discourse' Journal of the Academy of Public Health, whose founders include NIH and FDA nominees, goes against the grain with paid peer review, transparency, absence of gatekeeping. Critics call it a "grift," hypocritical. https://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/trump-nominees-covid-dissenters-launch-science-journal-restore-open
Unvaccinated & Unemployed (pictured planting baby olive trees last weekend before cold & rain blew in)
Dr Morgan's blog is about a truism and of course people are apt to agree with him!
But the really bizarre world view underpinning his work is the notion that "wealth" is in anyway connected to fiat currency, or for that matter gold, when the planet' biosphere is on the point of collapse.
Unforseen?
The moment Nixon closed the gold window in 1971 absolutely set in stone the imminent collapse of the world's fiat currency system we are all about to experience.
I met a young chap on a train just before Christmas who had a degree in Economics. I mentioned 15/8/1971 to him and his response was that that was the day meaning left the world. The people who put the medical emergency in place would have started to plan it back in 1971 as they knew some sort of device would be needed to help manage the chaos that is coming our way.