How The Syrian House Of Cards Fell
Not In Planning Committee,
Please forgive my hubris in the title, but it suggests itself, and it was the immediate question in every "inquiring mind". I present many answers here, with lots of overlap.
If I might simplify, things have been very hard in Syria for 13 years since Assad would not allow the Qatari pipeline through Saudi Arabia and Turkey, to Europe, to pass through Syria, protecting Russian and Iranian interests, thereby, and incurring the wrath of empire.
Basher al Assad was an Ophthalmologist. His older brother had all the training to succeed Dad, and the spirit for it, and died in a car wreck. Basher loves his wife who got over breast cancer 4 years ago, just to get diagnosed with Leukemia, which happens to be a common side effect of COVID gene-therapy "vaccine products", which she might have received. Basher wants to set up some eye clinics in Russia, they say.
The Syrian army was starving, exhausted, unmotivated, and officers had been covertly corrupted to desert in the face of the enemy, which had been planned a long time in Turkey, funded through Qatar, and covertly supported through middle-men by the US and Israel. It went so well taking Aleppo, that the 30,000 HTS forces just kept rolling to Damascus, surprising themselves as much as Trump was surprised to win the 2016 election.
There is no force that is large enough to hold the country, and something like 6 armed forces now in-theater. Israel is bombing the hell out of everything military in Syria, and advancing upon Damascus, to seize the capital, while Turkish surrogates and forces are attacking US Kurdish proxy forces to take the oil and farms in Northwest Syria, beginning to restore the Ottoman Empire.
Russians were supposedly warned by Israel to get their fleet out of Tartous to avoid damage, which they did, but there seem to be agreements all around that Russia can keep that naval base and their air-base, which makes sense for both Israel and Turkey, so as to counterbalance the US, and each other in this delicate and unstable new setting. Russia seeks to avoid losses. Iran is seeking to avoid losses, and possibly to re-align politically with the west. Hezbollah has no supply lines, and Hamas supports the "rebels" in Syria, which they might as well do now.
HTS "Woke Jihadi" Abu Mohammed al-Jolani has a family name that means "from Golan", and is the son of Palestinian/Syrian refugees from there. He is now a "friend of Israel", but that is new. That's not what he said a very few years ago. He appears to be politically adept and intelligent enough to avoid battle with such a small army. He is currently on good terms with Turkey and Israel, but not trusted by either country, which are rapidly grabbing territory while the grabbing is easy.
Syrians are robbed and looted by armed bandits and are fleeing when they can. They have been starved for 13 years already... Maybe the US will lift sanctions, maybe not.
Vanessa Beely has been a long-time resident of Syria. She just fled with one suitcase and one dog. Thanks Lucy. Safe while Syria burns. Just a very quick update
More than 350 Israeli airstrikes targeting Syrian territory in the past hours, and an enemy Israeli occupation of Syrian territory equivalent to twice the size of the Gaza Strip, and their army is less than 40 km away from the capital Damascus. [Already within20 km, I read. JD]
After a rather turbulent 48 hours I am safe and will be writing and broadcasting as normal very shortly. I had one hour to pack one suitcase, take one dog and get through a border swarming with armed thugs looting and fighting amongst themselves over the spoils. The night before was spent besieged by armed groups firing in the air to celebrate their “victory” while Israel started using bunker buster bombs on Syrian military sites and air defence close to the house. The house shook from top to bottom. At 10am truckloads of armed thieves arrived and battered at my front gate. I was on the phone to a friend who begged me to find a weapon - clearly I don’t have any. I yelled at them from inside and the dogs went crazy. After three batterings they left.
Much more to recount over the coming days. Social media is a mess of lies, misinformation and downright hypocrisy. Thank you to everyone who emailed and messaged, it really lifted my spirits at an all time low.
I wrote this note this morning. I need a long time to process the loss for the whole world and for me as a human being who saw my future living in my beloved Syria.
Anyone who can explain why Assad's pre-recorded farewell speech and possible explanation of the catastrophic events was not aired, as planned, after he left the country, please get in touch.
All the backstabbers who are now turning against Assad, protecting their interests - you were in a position to say something for 14 years. Why didn't you?
I don't blame any of the ordinary people for adopting the new era. People in Syria are isolated and afraid, some are terrified.
Simplicius has most of the story in one long read. Syria's Fall: In-Depth Analysis
What do we know so far?
Firstly, there are now indications ‘rebels’ informed Turkey of their intentions to launch an offensive on Aleppo six months ago, according to Reuters...
..I mostly agree with Scott Ritter’s take here that the operation was never meant to topple all of Syria and that this became a kind of emergent improvisation after all the hyenas of the region saw how weak Syrian armed forces were in responding to the initial foray. There is ample ancillary evidence to suggest the assault was initially meant to be limited—but of course grew in scope as Israel, US, Turkey, and others began to see opportunity and activated their various sleeper cells, as well as began to secretly court Syrian generals and other influential army figures to essentially surrender or betray Assad in one way or another.
Here’s one analyst’s take on how the militants did not expect such success. It mentions that the Russian army reportedly offered to upgrade and train the SAA much more directly several years ago, but was for some reason refused.
We now have a better understanding of why, precisely, events unfolded, and how Syria had become so weak, directly from first hand sources. Though he’s the least trustworthy character, Erdogan explained that he had offered Assad a deal—in his words—to bring back some Syrian refugees as well as for Assad to influence Kurds on the Turkish border to pull back. One suspects there’s much more to the ‘deal’ than Erdogan reveals, but other figures have somewhat corroborated the above.
Here, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi openly reveals that Assad had become too inflexible in being open to the Astana process ‘dialogues’ with the opposition...
..First he mentions that Assad himself was shocked at his own army’s collapse. The FM implies Assad had poor working knowledge of the internal situation of his own military, which we’ll get to in a moment.
Then he lays it out: “It must be said that the path did not progress as well as expected, and Mr. Assad’s government in this regard was somewhat inflexible and slow in making progress.”
But now the Syrian ambassador to Russia himself, Bashar al-Jafaari, went even further in condemning the decadence under Assad. The government’s rapid fall is evidence of its unpopularity among the people and army, the diplomat has said.
Granted, he could just be trying to curry favor with the new ‘administration’ to jockey for a job, but his words seem to echo other officials in close contact with Assad’s government...
..There are other perspectives, of course. For instance, here an Iranian hardliner claims that the ‘progressive’ new president Masoud Pezeshkian simply did not allow Iranian forces to fight in Syria... Iranian hardliner and expert on Syrian affairs Sohail Karimi claims that the reformist government of Pezeshkian does not allow Iranian troops to fight in Syria: "We are not allowed to fight in Syria. We gave 6,000 martyrs in Syria to fight these terrorists, their death should not be in vain…"
And here former deputy of the Iranian Quds forces says Turks and other Arab countries deceived Tehran, which was reportedly ‘worried about movement in Idlib two months ago’. "We asked the Turks and some Arab countries and received assurances that there would be no movement. Hakan Fidan in particular told us this. I wish we had not been deceived by them and had taken precautions and reinforced our forces in Syria."
Many people obviously feared that Pezeshkian would be some kind of Western-liberal plant, but I don’t think it’s so black and white. A combination of the above factors was clearly responsible for what happened and how rather than direct and pre-planned betrayal on the part of the Iranians or Russians...
..There are many videos of SAA soldiers condemning the army, Assad, etc., during the events of the past few days. Here one angry SAA soldier shouts that Hezbollah Radwan special forces sold them out, Iran, Russia, and Assad himself all ‘sold them out’...
..I’ve now seen statements that Hamas supports the revolution and welcomes the new Syrian government, so you can add them to the list too...
..I consider Assad a kind of tragic figure because it appears now in retrospect that while he was a good man and kind leader, he may not have been an effective leader. The reality is that he was never meant to become ruler. He was a simple doctor-in-training while his older, firmer brother Bassel al-Assad, elder son of Hafez, was meant to inherit the throne until he tragically died in a car accident in 1994:
Bashar al-Assad was not initially destined to become the president of Syria. His older brother, Basil al-Assad, was being groomed for this role by their father, Hafez al-Assad. Basil was seen as the preferred successor and had been prepared for leadership from a young age. However, his life took a tragic turn when he died in a car accident in 1994, which drastically altered the succession plan.
Following Basil's death, Bashar, who was studying ophthalmology in London at the time, was recalled to Syria. He had to abandon his medical career and quickly adapt to a political and military role. Hafez al-Assad then began to prepare Bashar for leadership by enrolling him in military training and positioning him within the government. Despite his lack of political experience, Bashar eventually succeeded his father as president after Hafez's death in 2000.
Just look at the eldest son’s training—that’s who was meant to lead Syria:
Trained in parachuting, he was commissioned in the Special Forces and later switched to the armoured corps after training in the Soviet military academies. He rapidly rose through the ranks, becoming a major and then commander of a brigade in the Republican Guard.
It can be inferred that Bashar’s lack of training for the role, and his incompatible disposition likely led to his not being a good military commander-in-chief...
..The soft-spoken, mild-mannered, intelligent ruler may not have had the required gravitas to properly thrive in a barbarous region overrun with vicious enemies on all sides...
..As an anecdotal aside, Assad’s emails were once hacked by rebels at the start of the war, and virtually the only ‘incriminating’ material they could find were love notes to his wife; e.g. from CNN:
“If we are strong together, we will overcome this together … I love you …” al-Assad wrote his wife the day the Arab League suspended its monitoring mission in Syria... ..Asma, who boasts in one e-mail to a friend that she is the “REAL dictator” in her relationship, reciprocates the affection, once writing her husband a short poem.
“Sometimes at night, when I look to the sky, I start thinking of you and ask myself, why? Why do I love you? I think and smile, because I know the list could run on for miles.”
Now in the overthrow’s aftermath rebels have ransacked Assad’s residence and found his private family album, again revealing nothing more than a wholesome family man starkly contrasted with the picture the cretinous West has painted of him...
..Assad—who has now been confirmed by Russian foreign ministry as being safe in Moscow—intends to go back to private life and open up some kind of ophthalmology clinic in Russia...
..For the Empire, a Historic Victory or Grand Illusion?
Many now espouse the understandable sentiment that Israel and the US have achieved an unprecedented victory over their enemies. The Hamas October 7th attack which unleashed a domino effect of consequences has been deemed as one of the most catastrophic blunders in history...
..Israel is no closer to achieving its aims of returning its hostages, repopulating its citizens, or actually defeating Hezbollah as a fighting force on the battlefield. Israeli society has taken major blows in the last year of this crisis, and the trust in the government which was lost will not be recovered for a long time, if ever. The same goes for institutional trust, particularly between the military and political wing. Israel still appears headed toward decline.
Granted, there are potentialities for Israel to emerge on top, they simply don’t look likely just yet...
..At first glance, such developments appear to hint that Israel has a love affair with the rebels, and they together have achieved a great victory over their enemies. However, there are many problems with this analysis.
Firstly, Turkey is most likely to emerge as the chief victor and dominant influence over the powers in the region. Ostensibly, the group it controls most is the SNA rebels—aka FSA or TFSA, which are not on perfect terms with HTS. However, ultimately the Syrian project has been a Turkish one, and Turkey’s main drive of Ottoman Empire revanchism will eventually clash with Zionism’s Greater Israel project.
Recall that the Ottoman Empire has classically controlled all of Palestine for hundreds of years, which includes Israel itself. You can levy accusations against Erdogan double-dealing and supplying Israeli oil and such, but these are all realpolitik practicalities and do not change the ultimate telos of Turkey’s destiny: to pursue restoration of its lost Ottoman lands, which includes not only all of Syria but Palestine as well.
That means by defeating an ‘independent’—but ultimately innocuous—Syria, Israel has just condemned itself to a future fate far worse than facing even distant Iran...
..Does Israel even realize what it has just helped to facilitate? Instead of a peaceful secular state on its borders, it may soon have a rabid caliphate, led by someone without Assad’s temperance and pumped up by Turkey into a reconquista of Jerusalem and Gaza. Israel thinks it has eliminated Iran from the chessboard but instead it has potentially brought on someone even far more historically aggressive, and someone who—unlike Iran—has an actual, real historical bone to pick with the colonial pretender that is Israel.
Israel seems to perhaps sense the blunder, as it began to immediately destroy ex-SAA military infrastructure before it falls into the new rebels’ hands: both Mezzeh airbase in Damascus and Syrian ships in Latakia were hit...
..Syrian ‘revolution’ journalist from Daraa expresses outrage at Israel’s sudden attacks on Syria, which underscores the wider sentiment of the ‘opposition’...
..That’s not to mention a plethora of FSA revolutionaries have inexplicably come out celebrating Assad’s downfall with glorifications of…. Saddam Hussein. “Saddam is the true leader of all Sunni Arabs!” Not exactly a good sign for the US-Israeli axis.
More and more recently Israeli figures have noted the need for expansion, hearkening to long-awaited Greater Israel prophecies...
..Dugin reminds us of the eschatology of top Likudniks who’ve promised to demolish Al-Aqsa in order to build the Third Temple and bring about the messiah...
..Recall that Golan Heights is the eponym from which the nisba Al-Jolani (Golani) comes from. The HTS leader’s family is from the Golan Heights, and was displaced by Israel in the Six Day War. Can you see the problem here? ...
..Even as of this writing, Israel appears to be making a play toward Damascus, which Smotrich and others have promised to capture.
Israel is on a preordained path to more than just ‘local friction’ with Sunni groups: this is an eschatological show down that appears to be proceeding precisely to plan, which will lead down the line to Israel’s ultimate destruction...
..Iran still maintains its influence over the region via Iraq and its growing normalization with other Arab countries. Has Israel severed Iran’s ability to supply Hezbollah, causing Hezbollah to eventually wither at the root? That could be—time will tell. But Israel may have just invoked a far worse enemy on its border. Even so, clipping Hezbollah’s wings does nothing really to Iran itself, it just takes away one Damocles sword Iran had over Israel. But does that somehow give Israel its own Damocles sword over Iran? No. Plus, Iran could find new ways to supply Hezbollah, particularly with the melange of new alliances which are soon to form from this heady brew. After all, despite various blockades Iran has found ways to supply Yemen.
And Russia: has Russia been “defeated” by the US or Israel? Well, thus far the ‘rebels’ have already stated a desire to have diplomatic relations with Russia and have given permission for Russia to retain its naval bases...
..A Syrian opposition representative said good relations with Russia are needed: it is "a very important actor in the world."...
..So what did Russia lose? For now, Russia lost the money-sink of pouring billions of dollars into protecting Assad’s government, potentially freeing up vast amounts of both troops and funding to serve the SMO. Does that sound like a loss?
There are many different ways the situation can fork from here on out, with some rumors claiming the establishment of some new and closer Russian-Israeli alliance vis-a-vis Syria, while I can see potential for an increased Russian-Turkish proximity in the future, particularly given Erdogan’s odd new remark that he and Putin are ‘the only two leaders in the world.’
Critics point to Russia losing its resupply operations to Africa via Latakia and Tartus: as can be seen, for now there is no threat of that. It’s the US itself which remains on unstable footing given that Iraq is seeking to boot the US with increased urgency, not to mention Trump’s claims of withdrawing from Syria...
..Iran and Russia did not lose one soldier or any amount of vital assets over this. They are at their full readiness. And now the West has to sort out Syria, explain to the world what it's doing there, and pay for its rehabilitation. Does this sound like such a bad deal?...
..It’s impossible to tell for certain what the future holds for the Syrian people themselves. However, there is some chance for optimism. If the US gets the format it likes it may rescind sanctions and resume aid which will ultimately be better for the Syrian people themselves, so long as Al-Qaeda—I mean, the new ‘democratic government’—honors their newly redefined role as true ‘moderates’, even if it’s just for show.
In fact, Biden was quick to already announce new ‘relief aid’... The ideal for the US would be to prepackage the narrative that Assad was the source of Syrians’ suffering by quickly showing a new ‘prosperous’ Syria, when in reality it was simply the sanctions tap being turned on or off at will that exercised total dominance over Syrians’ future and wellbeing.
From May: Syrian first lady Asma al-Assad has leukemia, presidency says https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/syrian-first-lady-asma-al-assad-has-leukemia-presidency-says-2024-05-21/
Judge Napolitano with Pepe Escobar, mainly about Syria, not Russia, Start at 2:25 (27 min from there) Pepe Escobar : Russia’s Next Move
This has good color coded visual maps and explanations of all of the moving pieces on the territory of Syria and recent context. It's a British take, so shaded that way. 10 min.
The INSANE situation in Syria explained
Syria update in first 5 minutes, then Ukraine: Advances Towards Damascus Uspenivka Fortified Area Has Fallen Military Summary 2024.12.10
Andrew Korybko Trump Isn’t Telling The Whole Truth About Russia & Syria At the end of the day, what happened was a disaster and no honest observer can deny that, but they also shouldn’t try to spin it as Russia’s fault like Trump did in his posts.
Trump posted twice thus far about Russia and Syria at the time of this analysis’ publication. His full messages can be read here and here, but what follows are the relevant excerpts as they pertain to those two. Here’s what he wrote in his first post:
“Russia, because they are so tied up in Ukraine, and with the loss there of over 600,000 soldiers, seems incapable of stopping this literal march through Syria, a country they have protected for years. This is where former President Obama refused to honor his commitment of protecting the RED LINE IN THE SAND, and all hell broke out, with Russia stepping in. But now they are, like possibly Assad himself, being forced out, and it may actually be the best thing that can happen to them. There was never much of a benefit in Syria for Russia, other than to make Obama look really stupid.”
And here’s what he wrote in his second one:
“Assad is gone. He has fled his country. His protector, Russia, Russia, Russia, led by Vladimir Putin, was not interested in protecting him any longer. There was no reason for Russia to be there in the first place. They lost all interest in Syria because of Ukraine, where close to 600,000 Russian soldiers lay wounded or dead, in a war that should never have started, and could go on forever. Russia and Iran are in a weakened state right now, one because of Ukraine and a bad economy, the other because of Israel and its fighting success.”
As can be seen, both reference Ukrainian claims of Russia suffering over 600,000 casualties, which is just a cheap propaganda point in this context to emphasize its commitment to the special operation. Russia’s prioritization of its military operations against Ukraine over its anti-terrorist ones in Syria is also mentioned in each post too. Unlike the casualty figures that Trump cited, this is mostly accurate, but he still put a negative spin on it claiming that Russia was incapable of stopping the terrorists’ march.
The reality is that Russia could have hypothetically diverted some of its Aerospace Forces from the Ukrainian front to the Syrian one, but that would have been a waste of resources since the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) surrendered entire cities without putting up a fight.
Moon of Alabama: Syria - Winners And Losers Or Both Israel is grabbing another large amount of Syrian land. It has taken control of the Syrian city of Quneitra, along with the towns of Al-Qahtaniyah and Al-Hamidiyah in the Quneitra region. It has also advanced into the Syrian Mount Hermon and is now positioned just 30 kilometers from (and above) the Syrian capital.
It is also further demilitarizing Syria by bombing every Syria military storage site in its reach. Air defense positions and heave equipment are its primary targets. For years to come Syria, or whatever may evolve from it, will be completely defenseless against outside attacks.
Israel is for now the big winner in Syria. But with restless Jihadists now right on its border it remains to be seen for how long that will hold.
The U.S. is bombing the central desert of Syria. It claims to strike ISIS but the real target is any local (Arab) resistance which could prevent a connection between the U.S. controlled east of Syria with the Israel controlled south-west. There may well be plans to further build this connection into an Eretz Israel, a Zionist controlled state "from the river to the sea".
Turkey has had and has a big role in the attack on Syria. It is financing and controlling the 'Syrian National Army' (previously the Free Syrian Army), which it is mainly using to fight Kurdish separatists in Syria.
There are some 3 to 5 million Syrian refugees in Turkey which the wannabe-Sultan Erdogan wants, for domestic political reasons, to return to Syria. The evolving chaos will not permit that.
Turkey had nurtured and pushed the al-Qaeda derived Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to take Aleppo. It did not expect it to go any further. The fall of Syria is now becoming a problem for Turkey as the U.S. is taking control of it. Washington will try to use HTS for its own interests which are, said mildly, not necessary compatible with whatever Turkey may want to do.
A primary target for Turkey are the Kurdish insurgents within Turkey and their support from the Kurds in Syria. Organized as the Syrian Democratic Forces the Kurds are sponsored and controlled by the United States. The SDF are already fighting Erdogan's SNA and any further Turkish intrusion into Syria will be confronted by them.
The SDF, supported by the U.S. occupation of east-Syria, is in control of the major oil, gas and wheat fields in the east of the country. Anyone who wants to rule in Damascus will need access to those resources to be able to finance the state.
Despite having a $10 million award on its head HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Golani is currently played up by western media as the unifying and tolerant new leader of Syria. But his HTS is itself a coalition of hardline Jihadists from various countries. There is little left to loot in Syria and as soon as those resources run out the fighting within HTS will begin. Will al-Golani be able to control the sectarian urges of the comrades when these start to plunder the Shia and Christian shrines of Damascus? ... ..The incoming Trump administration sees China as its major enemy. By throwing Syria(and Ukraine)into chaos the outgoing Biden administration has guaranteed that Trump will have to stay involved in the Middle East(and eastern Europe).
The massive U.S. 'Pivot to Asia' will again have to wait. This gives China more time to build its sphere of influence. It may well be the only power that has been a winner in this. https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/12/syria-winner-and-losers-or-both.html
As mentioned above: US Bombs 75 ISIS Targets Across Syria After Assad Overthrown https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-bombs-75-isis-targets-across-syria-after-assad-overthrown
Also mentioned above; Bomb, Bomb, Bomb: Israel Striking Bases & Equipment Across Syria https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israel-striking-bases-equipment-across-syria-including-assads-chemical-weapons-sites
The gas pipeline to supply Europe that Syria wouldn't allow, prompting the 2011 proxy war upon it. Qatar-Turkey Gas Pipeline https://www.gem.wiki/Qatar-Turkey_Gas_Pipeline
Gilbert Doctorow, ‘No Nuclear War’: 7 December at The National Press Club What is the value of the Opposition in the USA and Europe in preventing a looming nuclear war? A look at The National Press Club event organized by Scott Ritter yesterday provides some answers.
The ‘No Nuclear War’ proceedings in Washington, D.C. on 7 December (Pearl Harbor Day in the United States)will no doubt be put online by various internet platforms. I used the following channel hosted by Daniel Haiphong:
...
..28 November, at his press conference in Astana concluding his two-day state visit to Kazakhstan, Vladimir Putin said that any further missile attacks on Russian territory coming from Ukraine would result in Russia’s unleashing its
Oreshnik on the ‘decision making and command and control centers of Ukraine,’ meaning in essence decapitation of the Zelensky regime and death of the senior American and other NATO officers who are directing the Ukrainian military operations from their underground bunkers in Kiev, Lvov and elsewhere in the country.
It would appear that by this time the devastating destructive force of the Oreshnik for the stated applications was fully understood in Washington and since that time no further missile strikes have taken place, even if Ukrainian drones continue to deliver their pin-prick strikes on towns across Russia, nearly all of which are effectively frustrated by Russian air defenses.
For the above reasons, I remain fairly confident that in the closing days of the Biden administration and in the time in office of the incoming Trump administration whoever is in charge of military and foreign policy, whether Neocon in political persuasion or just ‘normal’ patriots, shall we say, Washington will do the right thing now because it has tried everything else till today and failed. https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/12/08/no-nuclear-war-7-december-at-the-national-press-club/
Times are tough and getting tighter. I wonder if the tide is about to turn. Democracy Is Dead: A Coup Against Right Wing Movements Is Underway In Europe In the past, progressive elites were not generally threatened by the campaigns of the old center and center-right parties because those groups have long been managed by fake conservatives with no intention of disturbing the deviation of the Overton Window to the radical left. But of course, times have changed. Legitimate opposition to the far-left is rising in the form of political parties fighting for secure borders and anti-wokeness initiatives, and are furious. They've had a taste of near total power, and though they claim to be the patron saints of Democracy they are openly adopting authoritarian ideals in order to keep that power.
In the US the far-left has been pursuing an all out propaganda war and has abused the legal system for years as a means to stop conservatives from returning to government. The lawfare tactics utilized against Donald Trump were unprecedented, but ultimately failed. In Europe, though, leftists are finding more success. https://www.zerohedge.com/political/democracy-dead-coup-against-right-wing-movements-underway-europe
Simplicius has more on the harsh left-fascist backlash in Europe. Cynical Overtakes Sacred, as the West Bares its True Face One can hardly believe it anymore. The West has dropped all pretense of their sacred cow of ‘democracy’, used for generations as an instrument of moral superiority with which to browbeat the rest of the world.
Romanian candidate Calin Georgescu larruped his opponent in the first round of presidential elections, only for the entire result to be ‘nullified’ by a Romanian court, absurdly citing “Russian interference on TikTok”—with no real evidence...
..But the entire system walks a thin line because the people have slowly figured it out, and the globalist technocrats’ political duplicity is already revving at max thresholds; they simply cannot afford to steal every future election without the system collapsing beneath the weight of its runaway tyranny. It is already buckling, and a handful of rouged up globalist finger puppets are fain to put up a smiling facade of normalcy before cameras, while the foundations groan beneath them.
This political order is not just a sick man of Europe, but the veritable sick man of the world, coughing up his infectious spume onto all nearby. This is the cynical twilight of the West, which has chosen terror, oppression, and political manipulation against its own citizens as a way of coping with the slow loss of its imperial entitlements. It’s only inevitable that the rising tide of anti-establishment political parties continues to sweep this canker away. But before this happens for good, Europe will likely see a destabilizing political paralysis for several years, as a kind of final death throes of the globalist holdouts and political hacks like Starmer, Macron, Scholz, and co., whose only jobs will be to delay the fall as long as possible.
30% of demonstrators were foreign color-revolution-tourists: Georgia has prevented Maidan-style coup – PM The country’s authorities have thwarted a regime-change attempt coordinated from abroad, Irakli Kobakhidze has said Georgia has prevented an attempted overthrow of the government orchestrated by foreign powers, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze has said. He compared the scenario allegedly prepared for the nation with the situation in Ukraine in 2014.
Speaking on Monday, Kobakhidze referred to the US-backed Maidan coup in Kiev a decade ago, which ousted Ukraine’s democratically elected president, Viktor Yanukovich, and precipitated the current conflict between Moscow and Kiev.
“It took the [Georgian] Ministry of Internal Affairs exactly five days to neutralize the resource of violence of the radical opposition,” Kobakhidze said at a cabinet meeting, thanking the head of the ministry, Vakhtang Gomelauri, and police officers.
He added that the ministry had acted in accordance with standards “higher than the American and European ones.” “This is how the attempt of Maidan in our country was stopped in exactly five days,” Kobakhidze concluded. https://swentr.site/russia/609085-georgia-prevented-coup-premier/
The underlying problem: Fuel feeds modern economy. European industry is starving to death. Europe's Downward Spiral Accelerates Europe is in trouble. After struggling with high energy prices and stagnating then falling demand for three years in a row, companies have run out of leeway. Now, we are witnessing the effects of a chronic under-consumption crisis and a loss of competitiveness on a historic scale. This is not your run-of-the-mill economic downturn from which there is a quick rebound. In fact, the basket case of Europe has provided us with a preview what the relentless rise of the energy cost of energy means for the economy, and ultimately for industrial civilization as a whole... ..What started as a “failure” to meet the energy demands of a post-COVID rebound, has now turned into a full blown energy crisis unwilling to recede. As lockdowns eased and economic activity returned in 2021, demand for natural gas has increased substantially worldwide. Many oil and gas wells — shut-in during 2020 — on the other hand, could not return to full production and as a result a natural gas price rally began; half a year earlier than the fighting in Ukraine escalated into an all out war.
Fighting alone had little effect on the price of natural gas in Europe, though. Various sanctions, lawsuits, asset confiscations and seizures, abrupt withdrawal of permits, “mysterious” pipeline explosions and denial of payments from the European side, on the other hand, had a significant role to play in the rally depicted on the chart above. Just for context: before the war Germany used to import 50% of its coal, 55% of its natural gas, and 31% of its crude oil from Russia, representing 33% of Germany’s total energy consumption — all of which falls under some sort of sanctions today... ..Europe is deindustrializing fast. Half of the continent’s steel, glass and aluminum capacity, together with fertilizer and chemical plants have already left in the first wave (in late 2022 and early 2023). Now, it’s time for the automotive and machine manufacturing sector to go, together with the “renewables” and battery businesses. Well, energy is (still) the economy, it seems. As industrial demand recedes, however, so does consumer demand. With mass layoffs, and in response to a huge drop in the purchasing power of their money, people started to buy less and less products made with expensive energy, and turned down the heating in their homes even further... ..Despite the disappearance of cheap gas from the market we will neither see another price rally, nor run out of gas by the end of winter. It will not be a smooth ride though. Were it not for “renewable” energy, we would “only” see a slow dying of the natural gas intensive part of the economy — which is still a big deal on its own. With the predictable unpredictability of wind and solar, however, and with a massive reliance on natural gas fired power plants to balance electricity demand, Europe just saw the fastest drop in natural gas storage in years. Yes, the weather was cold in the past couple of weeks, but it wasn’t nearly as cold as it could get in the dead of winter. Wind on the other hand stopped blowing, which not only resulted in lower electricity generation from wind turbines, but also in thicker clouds and more persistent fog… Leading to a much diminished solar power generation... ..The lack of cheap pipeline gas in combination with an ever increasing share of “renewables” has led to a sharp rise in electricity prices all across Europe... ..Now the chickens come home to roost. First the German, then the French government(two of the biggest economies in the EU)collapsed over debates on soaring debt levels and deficit spending. Again, no (cheap) energy, no economy. No economy, no consumption, no tax revenues. Irrespective of who is called the next chancellor or prime minister, he or she will have to deal with a massive debt crisis, and in case of France, an even bigger one than that of Greece’s in 2009.
Surplus Energy Economics, Dr. Tim Morgan (similar story) The perils of extremes, A VERY BRITISH CRISIS Britain is far from alone amongst Western countries in experiencing the effects of economic deterioration. The average British person has gradually been getting materially poorer ever since 2004, but the accelerating pace of this impoverishment has been driving social discontent and political fragility just as surely in France, Germany and America as in the United Kingdom. Britain does, though, stand out from the crowd in several significant respects. As we shall see, these include excessive indebtedness, and outsized exposure to rate and currency risk.
Even more seriously, the steps necessary for effective preparation for economic contraction may be hard to implement in Britain because they run contrary to long-established, cross-party support for the failed and divisive doctrine of extreme neoliberalism. As you may know, the essential context for the British economic challenge is that the global economy is in the process of inflecting from growth into contraction as the fossil fuel impetus on which the industrial economy was built fades away.
The critical marker for this process is the Energy Cost of Energy, a measure of the proportion of accessed energy which, being consumed in the energy access process, is not available for any other economic purpose.
Globally, trend ECoE has risen from 2.0% in 1980, and 4.2% in 2000, to 11% now, and is set to reach 13% by 2030, 18% by 2040 and 25% by 2050.
This relentless rise in ECoEs is ruinous for all industrial economies. In high-maintenance Western countries, prior growth in the material prosperity of the average person went into reverse at ECoEs of around 5%.
By this measure, the average British person was 11% poorer last year than he or she had been back in 2004,when prosperity per capita peaked at a national ECoE of 4.7%....
..However we look at this, it’s clear that significant changes will need to be made in the allocation and prioritization of dwindling economic resources. And this is where Britain’s commitment to extreme neoliberal doctrines is such a handicap to adaptation.
To be absolutely clear about this, Surplus Energy Economics is avowedly non-partisan in politics, but does mistrust economic extremes, and interprets the evidence as favouring the mixed economy model which seeks to optimise the different strengths of private and public provision. This was the post-war Keynesian consensus which, in Britain, was abandoned in 1979.
In any case, neoliberalism has long ceased to be a matter of party contention in British politics...
..Economic extremism almost always comes at a price. In Britain, the price for ideological neoliberalism was paid, in the first instance, in the destruction of manufacturing industry, the loss of control over many nationally important assets, and the conversion of much of the former ‘working class’ into a precariat with scant resources and very limited protections.
Beyond its shaky economic contentions, neoliberalism has always been as much a state of mind as a set of policies. The ideals of neoliberalism are based on the creed of short-term self-gratification and a belittling of almost anything that smacks of collective social endeavour. Excessive dependence on foreign investors and lenders, and extreme vulnerability to adverse currency and credit market movements, can be traced directly to the adoption of this creed.
The strange thing about this is how far the tenets of neoliberalism seem to have been accepted even by its victims...
..In Britain, a group of opportunists sought to craft a wholly different narrative, effectively re-writing history even as it was still being made. Their assertion was that the travails of the 1970s weren’t caused by the 1973-74 and 1978-79 oil crises, but by left-wing government and over-powerful organized labour. The solutions were to roll back the state, and destroy the power of the unions.
They embarked on an orgy of privatization, selling off to private investors everything from the supply of water, gas and electricity to telecommunications, railways, steel-making and car manufacturing. Various “watchdogs” were set up to try to limit abuse of the many natural monopolies included in this programme.
The proceeds of this privatization exercise, boosted by a temporary revenue bonanza from North Sea oil and gas, were used for two purposes, both of which a reasonable person might well regard as nefarious. The first was the financing of enough unemployment to break the power of organized labour. The second was the granting of tax cuts to anyone who didn’t actually need them...
..The situation now is that economic contraction is going to compel the abandonment of extreme neoliberalism. But this won’t be easy in a country so heavily committed to it. Elon Musk was a long way wide of the mark when he said that civil war in Britain was “inevitable”. The UK is no more politically unstable than Germany, France, Italy or a starkly-polarized United States.
Much likelier is a more insidious process whereby Britain becomes ungovernable, in the sense that no government, irrespective of party, can meet the demands of an increasingly impatient and discontented electorate.
This has been reflected in the very short honeymoon enjoyed by the Labour government elected with a big parliamentary majority in July. The right-wing Reform UK party, led by Nigel Farage, won a remarkable 14.3% of the popular vote in the July election, on a platform of lower immigration, reduced taxation and opposition to the Net Zero environmental agenda.
Beyond the gyrations of national politics, the problem here is that the global economy isn’t going to sit around waiting while the British debate the respective merits of social cohesion and a mantra of individual self-gratification. https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2024/12/06/294-the-perils-of-extremes/
This will work until it is maxed-out, but Europe and others will already be collapsing. Trump pledges to ‘drill, baby, drill’ The incoming president has vowed to boost oil and gas production to provide the US economy with affordable energy https://swentr.site/business/609063-trump-pledges-drill-oil-gas/
Trump vows to pardon Jan. 6 rioters on day one after getting into office
"These people are living in hell," Trump told NBC News' "Meet the Press." While he believes he was wronged, Trump said he will not appoint a special prosecutor to investigate Biden. https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/all-things-trump/trump-vows-pardon-jan-6-rioters-day-one-after-getting-office
State Department Scrambles To Scuttle $100M Censorship Network Before Trump Takes Office https://www.zerohedge.com/political/state-department-scrambles-scuttle-100m-censorship-network-trump-takes-office
A bomb? What? Former Secret Service Agent: Trump Likely To Be Attacked Before Inauguration “It’s going to be something of a much bigger magnitude” https://modernity.news/2024/12/06/former-secret-service-agent-trump-likely-to-be-attacked-before-inauguration/
Kyle Young still ranches on the US/Mexico border. Update from the Border War Zone, memo to Tom Homan Warning! Some of the video coverage of cartel activity along the Arizona border with Mexico is brutal.
Because his tell-it-like-it-is style doesn’t go over very well with the sanctimonious sanctuary types that populate much of the legacy media, Tom Homan, Trumps pick to be the new Border Czar, has been generating a lot of coverage. How much of what he’s been saying is hype and how much will translate into an effective reality remains to be seen.
So far, Trump has been populating his cabinet and inner circle with a host of characters, ranging from neocons like the war hawks Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz who back Israels genocide of Palestinians, to globalist transhumanists like Elon Musk (DOGE), to digital ID pushers like Vivek Ramaswamy (DOGE) and Peter Theil (advisor), to globalist carbon credit scammers like Howard Lutnik (Sec. of Commerce). All of these people have very profitable agendas they’ll be seeking to impose on all of us average American.
I see RFK Jr (HHS), Kash Patel (FBI director) and Tom Homan as the only three bright spots in the Trump administration. Today’s post is about what Tom Homan faces.
Tom Homan’s position as the border czar carries no official authority. It doesn’t even require Senate approval. He’ll probably just hold a staff position in the White House. But he may be able to sway people who are in positions of authority to do something about the war zone along the border. It’s for this reason I’m making this post - I hope he reads this to get a good handle on what’s really going on down here along the border.
Very few people know anything about what’s really happening along the border. Not only does the legacy media not cover it, they depict the border as being a highly controlled zone where law and order prevail. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Because I’ve lived near the border for most of my adult life, because I’ve traveled extensively in Mexico and because my friend Tim Foley heads up the Arizona Border Recon group, earlier this year I wrote a series of articles about the issues facing those of us who live along the border. I’m going to link all of those posts here. There has been some interesting developments regarding the video featured in the first post. That video was taken with a hidden camera placed next to a ranch gate on the border by my friend Tim Foley.
An economy full of honest participants is much more efficient and quickly adapts to changes. Charles Hugh Smith What Happened to Integrity and Honor? The hope here is that facing the reality of moral collapse frees us of the delusion that fiddling with technocratic financial abstractions and policy tweaks can reverse moral collapse.
A Midwestern Doctor presents the current case. Who's Trying to Stop America Becoming Healthy Again? Untangling the century of dark industry tactics that have poisoned the health of America Since COVID-19 began, those who tried to warn the public about the clear dangers of how we were addressing COVID-19 (e.g., lockdowns, vaccines, and remdesivir) have been targeted and silenced. While many were initially in disbelief our government could do something like this, more cynical parties (e.g., myself) suspected something like this would happen (as it always does) and caught the early warning signs of it.
In my eyes, beyond the over-the-top marketing throughout the media to promote the COVID boondoggle, there were three particularly noteworthy (and interwoven) facets to this campaign:
1. Widespread censorship of opposing ideas (e.g., GoFundMe deleting fundraisers for individuals who had severe COVID vaccine injuries and nowhere else to turn for help since those fundraisers alerted people to the vaccines not being completely “safe and effective” and most of the news networks refusing to question the COVID narrative). Of note, from the start, I assumed there had to be shadow banning occurring (as I could see the effects of it happen in real time) and coordination between the social media platforms and the Biden administration—an illegal activity which was gradually confirmed by lawsuits (e.g., due to the Twitter file) and other leaks that revealed shadow banning was widespread on the tech platforms.
2. The establishment targeted anyone who dissented against the narrative in a coordinated fashion. For example, many absurd complaints were used to target the medical licenses of physicians who were saving patients from dying from COVID (e.g., Meryl Nass, whose suspension was so absurd that 13 members of Maine’s legislature formally complained to the medical board about it).
3. A very aggressive and coordinated campaign to neutralize anyone who disputed the narrative on social media. Early on, I began to suspect this was happening because I’d see the same bad actors (typically doctors) use the same sculpted talking points. In April 2024, I found out an industry funded group did indeed exist, and that:
•Many of the people I’d suspected were in a coordinated conspiracy did indeed belong to a secret group (“Shots Heard”) dedicated to fighting misinformation online.
•That group was tied to the Federal Government and funded by the pharmaceutical industry.
•That group, one by one, would target dissident healthcare workers and attempt to both get them removed from social media, to have their medical licenses taken away or get them fired from work, and in some cases, to directly harass them at their homes... ..One of the things I find truly remarkable about RFK’s nomination is that most of the opposition to it (and the money to fund that opposition) is coming from the same people who constantly claim to advocate for our health—but in truth have only let things get far far worse.
This touches on why I believe public relations is so toxic to Democracy—by turning public opinion into something that could be shaped with well-crafted campaigns, it made it much easier for governments and corporations to create the perception they were doing good, rather than actually earn the public’s trust through doing the right thing.
Fortunately, the core aspects of human nature rarely change, and Harvey Wiley’s lessons from fighting the food and pharmaceutical industry over a century ago are just as applicable now as they were back then. He faced the same unscrupulous tactics and junk science we see now. He correctly concluded that the only way to fix that mess was to galvanize the public into demanding it—something we are finally seeing again with the Make America Healthy Again Movement.
Likewise, when Wiley proposed his reforms (e.g., not using toxic food preservatives or selling adulterated foods), he was met with stiff opposition from the industry that widely decried the severe damage his unnecessary policies would do to their businesses.
Meryl Nass MD, Remember when I asked if FDA was trying to pull a fraud on the court? Well, FDA got its hand slapped. FDA was trying to withhold a million pages from its Pfizer document cache from the public and tried to get a court to allow its dodge.
More on that from Dr. Nass: Asked by CHD's Defender to comment on the FDA's failed attempt to bury a million pages on Comirnaty, I fleshed out an answer for those less familiar with the details. I want to be sure all my readers understand what is at stake in this case. IMHO FDA attempted a fraud on the court by:
Failing to produce documents it knew it was required to make public, based on the original court ruling and FDA law.
And then FDA tried to trick the court into acquiescing with its partial production as if it was the whole enchilada.
And then it came up with a lame excuse for why it had gone down this route, probably expecting the court to give it deference, as it had done during the 40 years of the Chevron deference doctrine.
As Judge Pittman noted, the language in the original ruling was crystal clear. And I would point out that the law is also clear regarding the requirement to put the entire package of documents used in a licensing decision in the public domain, once a product is licensed—yet FDA decided to attempt a fraud, regardless. Thus it must have had something big to hide.
Sasha Latypova also has the story: FDA is ordered to produce 1 million more pages of Pfizer's Biologics License Application for covid injections Chemistry Manufacturing Controls documentation has not been produced yet. I hope it will be now. Does it even exist?
No escaping it? New Study Finds Concerning Evidence of COVID-19 'Vaccine' Shedding Menstrual Abnormalities Strongly Associated with Proximity to COVID-19 Vaccinated Individuals
I covered this when it first came out. BOMBSHELL Study: Covid ‘Vaccines’ Alter Human Behavior An alarming new study into Covid mRNA “vaccines” has sent shockwaves through the scientific community after researchers confirmed that the injections are altering human behavior.
That study: Psychiatric adverse events following COVID-19 vaccination: a population-based cohort study in Seoul, South Korea
Evidence has suggested an increased risk of psychiatric manifestations following viral infections including coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). However, psychiatric adverse events (AEs) after COVID-19 vaccination, which were documented in case reports and case series, remain unclear. This study is aimed to investigate the psychiatric AEs after COVID-19 vaccination from a large population-based cohort in Seoul, South Korea. We recruited 50% of the Seoul-resident population randomly selected from the Korean National Health Insurance Service (KNHIS) claims database on 1, January, 2021. The included participants (n = 2,027,353) from the Korean National Health Insurance Service claims database were divided into two groups according to COVID-19 vaccination. The cumulative incidences per 10,000 of psychiatric AEs were assessed on one week, two weeks, one month, and three months after COVID-19 vaccination. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% Confidence interval (CIs) of psychiatric AEs were measured for the vaccinated population. The cumulative incidence of depression, anxiety, dissociative, stress-related, and somatoform disorders, sleep disorders, and sexual disorders at three months following COVID-19 vaccination were higher in the vaccination group than no vaccination group. However, schizophrenia and bipolar disorders showed lower cumulative incidence in the vaccination group than in the non-vaccinated group. Depression (HR [95% CI] = 1.683 [1.520–1.863]), anxiety, dissociative, stress-related, and somatoform disorders (HR [95% CI] = 1.439 [1.322–1.568]), and sleep disorders (HR [95% CI] = 1.934 [1.738–2.152]) showed increased risks after COVID-19 vaccination, whereas the risks of schizophrenia (HR [95% CI] = 0.231 [0.164–0.326]) and bipolar disorder decreased after COVID-19 vaccination (HR [95% CI] = 0.672 [0.470–0.962]).
COVID-19 vaccination increased the risks of depression, anxiety, dissociative, stress-related, and somatoform disorders, and sleep disorders while reducing the risk of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. Therefore, special cautions are necessary for administering additional COVID-19 vaccinations to populations vulnerable to psychiatric AEs. [Who alive is not vulnerable?] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41380-024-02627-0
Sleeping Fine (pictured with December tomatoes, coffee, and cooking up the last of the fresh okra)
Great run down on the Syrian situation.
Thank you John.
Just looked at your bio here and you should add granddad, most important. Good round up of the show in Syria. There is something fishy about the whole affair. Could be that, running on empty, diesel thing that looks to be looming.